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2023 ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøseason, Week 13: What We Learned from Sunday's games

Around The ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøbreaks down what you need to know from all of Sunday's action in Week 13 of the 2023 ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøseason. Catch up on each game's biggest takeaways using the links below:

SUNDAY NIGHT

LATE WINDOW

EARLY WINDOW

SUNDAY NIGHT

Green Bay Packers
2023 · 6-6-0
Kansas City Chiefs
2023 · 8-4-0


Bobby Kownack's takeaways:


  1. Jordan Love proves worthy of duel with Patrick Mahomes. Green Bay's first-year starter Jordan Love was stellar Sunday night, especially at the start of both halves. The Packers didn’t go for the big play on the first snap as they had in their Thanksgiving Day upset over the Lions, instead setting the tone with two prolonged, near-flawless drives out of the gate. The first went 75 yards on 13 plays and took 7:47 off the clock, while the second went 75 yards on eight for 4:21. By the time 20 minutes had elapsed, Love was 10 of 11 for 109 yards and two touchdowns. When Kansas City stormed back on its first possession of the third quarter to close the lead to 14-12, Love ensured Green Bay would continue leading wire to wire by executing a 67-yard scoring drive in which he went 5 of 5 for 66 yards and his third TD toss of the night. Two of the throws on that drive, a 33-yard sky-high drop in the bucket to Romeo Doubs on fourth-and-1 and a 12-yard end-zone connection over a Chiefs defender to a leaping Christian Watson, were his highlights of the night. He made mistakes, such as when he gave himself up on third down to make a 38-yard field goal attempt 10 yards longer -- up five with 1:14 remaining -- but rookie kicker Anders Carlson bailed him out by nailing it. And the defense sealed the victory by stopping Patrick Mahomes for a third straight drive.
  2. Chiefs can’t overcome early stalls, late mistakes. Kansas City’s second-half woes have been well-established this year. Before managing last week’s season-high 17 points in their final two frames, the Chiefs were averaging a league-low 5.3 points per game in the second half in Weeks 1-11, per ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch. This time around, it was the first half that ultimately doomed them. A methodical pace from both teams meant Patrick Mahomes and Co. had just one drive in each of the first two quarters, but while both of those reached the red zone, neither found the end zone. Instead, the Chiefs stalled and traded two field goals for the Packers’ two touchdowns. Both of those halted possessions were surprisingly cut short by sacks -- Kansas City allowed three in total after giving up just 14 all year. The Chiefs still had chances to win as the game went on, largely thanks to a few dazzling throws from Mahomes and Isiah Pacheco, gashing Green Bay for 123 yards and a score on 21 touches before his late ejection. However, a late interception where Skyy Moore looked lost on a fade at the first-down marker and a third-ranked scoring defense that looked as vulnerable as it has all year ensured the early eight-point swing was too much to make up.
  3. Packers' defense doesn’t break. Green Bay allowed scores on Kansas City’s first four possessions. It allowed Patrick Mahomes to go without an incompletion for the entire third quarter and was more than leaky against the run. But when they absolutely needed to, the Packers made stops. While Green Bay’s offense was cooking with 14 points and 150 yards on its first two possessions, the defense gave up 139 yards combined its first two times on the field -- the difference being that the unit came up clutch with two third-down sacks to force the long drives into field goals. The first was a shared takedown by Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark on the 16-yard line, and the second was made by Preston Smith and Devonte Wyatt, again at the 16. Then down the stretch, as the Packers’ lead grew from two points to five points to eight, the D delivered a forced punt, a Keisean Nixon interception and turnover on downs by way of a failed hail Mary. In the end, just as it’s been through Green Bay’s three-game winning streak, it was enough. The young Packers are growing on both sides of the ball, and they’ve now climbed to 6-6 and the No. 7 seed in the NFC.

 

Next Gen stat of the game: The Chiefs recorded a season-low 47.6% defensive success rate, allowing 6.1 yards per play (their second-most in a game this season).

¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch: This was Jordan Love's fourth game of 2023 with three-plus passing TDs and no INTs, tying him with Brock Purdy for the most such games in the NFL. Love is the fifth QB in the Super Bowl era to have four such games in his first 13 starts.


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LATE WINDOW

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023 · 5-7-0
Carolina Panthers
2023 · 1-11-0


Michael Baca's takeaways:


  1. Veteran wideouts power Buccaneers past Carolina. It was a close, low-scoring affair until Tampa Bay’s veteran wide receivers made two game-altering plays late in the game. Mike Evans broke free for a 75-yard touchdown reception on the first play after Carolina got the lead in late in the third quarter, and Chris Godwin extended the Bucs’ lead in the fourth when his name was called on a third-and-2 in the red zone, turning the corner on for a 19-yard TD run to make it a two-score game. Evans’ 75-yarder was the highlight of his historic night, totaling 162 receiving yards off seven catches to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark to extend his record to 10 straight seasons of hitting that milestone to begin his career. Godwin was held to zero catches but his savvy run ended up being the difference after the Panthers’ clawed back to a one-score result. Baker Mayfield (14-of-29 passing, 202 yards, TD, interception) struggled to find consistency amid a rainy first half, but limited mistakes in crunch time and smartly threw it up to Evans when in doubt. Rachaad White (84 yards, TD) sealed it with a 30-yard run that allowed Tampa Bay to end it in victory formation.
  2. Panthers show fight, falter late. Carolina didn’t surrender following Godwin’s TD run, answering back with an 11-play, 75-yard drive that ended with Chuba Hubbard scoring his second TD of the day. Bryce Young made it even more interesting by scrambling to make a play on the successful two-point conversion to make it a three-point game. But with a chance to steal one away on the road, the Panthers faltered on offense. After forcing a punt, Young and Co. got the ball back with 3:31 left to play and two timeouts from their own 31-yard line. After Hubbard runs of 5 and 4 yards, Carolina called for a short pass play that went incomplete to face a fourth-and-1. Another pass play was called from the shotgun and Young was forced out of the pocket and sailed one downfield toward Adam Thielen, but Bucs safety Antoine Winfield Jr. read it all the way for the pick. Perhaps handing it off to Hubbard, who enjoyed a 104-yard day, would’ve been more prudent during that final drive, but the Panthers might still be adjusting to a new life under an interim head coach. Young finished with 178 yards passing (15 of 31) with one INT.
  3. Tampa Bay’s hobbled defense holds strong. Linebackers Devin White, Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean were all out for this game due to injury, setting up a worrisome scenario defensively for the Bucs, but the next men up indeed stepped up. LB J.J. Russell, who had barely seen any snaps going into the game, had seven tackles, one sack and a tackle for loss. Rookie LB YaYa Diaby also enjoyed a nice day with more playing time, notching six tackles and a sack. First-round rookie Calijah Kancey was a menace in the interior, tallying two tackles and bull-rushing his way toward two QB hits. Of course, Hubbard exploited the absences of White and David with a big day rushing the ball, but it was a bend-but-don’t-break effort that was needed to stave off Carolina. Yet, with Winfield still there to make plays on the back end – team-high eight tackles, one sack, INT, three passes defensed – hope was never lost for Tampa Bay as it trotted out a very green defense on Sunday.


Next Gen stat of the day: Chuba Hubbard rushed for 104 yards and two TDs on 25 carries, recording a season-high 48.0% success rate (minimum 10 carries). Hubbard was most successful on rushes outside the tackles, gaining 65 yards on 13 carries (5.0 yards per carry). Both of Hubbard's TD runs were against stacked boxes with eight-plus defenders.

¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch: Rachaad White scored his fifth rushing touchdown of the season and was one of two ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøplayers to have scored all of his team's rushing TDs before Chris Godwin's 19-yard TD run in which the WR became the second Buc to score on the ground this year.


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Los Angeles Rams
2023 · 6-6-0
Cleveland Browns
2023 · 7-5-0


Nick Shook's takeaways:


  1. Sean McVay cooks up a masterpiece. Cleveland's defense has built a reputation for being a stifling, if not suffocating unit in 2023. With Denzel Ward out and Myles Garrett playing through a shoulder injury, the Rams coach sensed an opportunity and took full advantage of it. McVay was in his play-calling bag for most of the afternoon in Inglewood, scheming an offense that maximized Matthew Stafford's arm talent and capitalized on Cleveland's hidden weaknesses, neutralizing the Browns' pass rush and exploiting their coverage issues, specifically in Cover 2 looks. Stafford hit Puka Nacua for a 70-yard touchdown down the middle of such a look early, and McVay drew up a play that beat one of the two deep safeties on a 30-yard connection between Stafford and Demarcus Robinson, lifting the Rams out of a second-and-20 and setting up a Robinson touchdown. While Jim Schwartz has done a remarkable job turning around this Browns defense in 2023, McVay was one step ahead of him in the most important moments, powering a 17-point win that ballooned from a one-point advantage to a runaway victory.
  2. Joe Flacco's strong debut goes up in smoke. With rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson unavailable, Flacco made his Browns debut Sunday -- yes, you read that correctly -- and shocked most everyone watching the game. He was composed and operated Cleveland's offense as if he'd run it for years, slinging the ball all over the yard and going toe to toe with Stafford for the majority of the game. Thanks to Flacco, former Jets teammate Elijah Moore had his best day as a Brown, catching four passes for 83 yards and carrying a receiving group that lost Amari Cooper early in Sunday's game. And because of Flacco, the Browns were in this game until late in the fourth quarter. The downside to Flacco's debut was his interception thrown in a one-point game, an unnecessary risk taken by the 38-year-old veteran who had an otherwise good day (23 of 44, 254 yards, two touchdowns, one interception). But considering where the Browns have been at quarterback in the last year, Flacco's performance was incredibly encouraging, even in a loss.
  3. Rams keep hanging around. Don't look now, but Los Angeles has won three straight, including two triumphs over teams that entered their meetings with winning records. Sunday's victory moved the Rams back to .500 at 6-6 and into the thick of the NFC wild-card race, a reality most would've considered laughable a month ago. Credit is due, of course, to McVay and Stafford, who have found ways to keep this offense afloat in the absence of Cooper Kupp and are now reaping the benefits of having him and Kyren Williams available to produce in a big way. And if you need an example of how well this partnership is working, look no further than Puka Nacua, who broke 1,000 receiving yards Sunday in just his first ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøseason. The Rams are finding ways to win with a roster that trails others in terms of total talent, a sign of a well-coached unit. And although they're still making some mental errors, it's hard to argue with the results right now.

 

Next Gen stat of the game: Puka Nacua generated the second-most receiving yards over expected in his rookie season (plus-44) Sunday, catching four of seven targets for 105 yards and a touchdown.

¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch: Puka Nacua (1,029 receiving yards in 2023) passed Mike Williams (964 yards in 2010 with the Buccaneers) for the second-most receiving yards by a rookie who was selected outside the top 100 picks in the ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøDraft. Nacua trails only Marques Colston, who had 1,038 in 2006.


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Eric Edholm's takeaways:


  1. Niners brush off slow start, boat race Eagles in critical matchup of NFC titans. Brock Purdy was 0-for-4 passing, and the 49ers had two three-and-outs after one quarter of play, with the Eagles leading, 6-0. But just when it looked like Philly once again had the Niners’ number in the rematch of the 2022 NFC Championship Game, the 49ers turned on the afterburners offensively and never looked back. They gained 173 yards in the second quarter alone, scoring on touchdown drives of 85 and 90 yards. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ defense tightened up after allowing two long field-goal drives early, forcing two punts before halftime. The Eagles scored on their first drive of the second half, but the 49ers wouldn’t let up, scoring touchdowns on six straight possessions to turn the game into a laugher. If the 49ers play at this level in the playoffs, they’ll be hard to beat – whether they earn the first-round bye or otherwise. 
  2. Eagles can’t win a third straight emotional game vs. heavyweight. Jalen Hurts was knocked out of the game for part of a series, and the defense took it on the chin, allowing six straight TD drives from the second quarter on. That’s how the Eagles were humbled at home, dropping just their second game of the season and making their road to the NFC East title and No. 1 overall playoff seed a tougher chore down the stretch. It was a chippy game, with the 49ers seemingly fine with bringing the fight to Philly. Dre Greenlaw and Eagles security director Dom DiSandro were sidelined after a sideline interaction midway through the third quarter. The Eagles seemed fired up after DeVonta Smith was suplexed, and Hurts would cap that drive with a TD run to make it 21-13, 49ers. But the 49ers would handle the momentum change and finish the game on a 21-6 run. They dominated both lines of scrimmage and made a statement against one of the best teams in the ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøin their stadium. It certainly feels like a playoff rematch is possible, but the 49ers did something to the Eagles that hasn’t been done to them in a few years. 
  3. Niners flex run-game muscles against Eagles’ suddenly shaky defense. It wasn’t a shock the 49ers ran the ball effectively Sunday, but it’s the way they did it that sent a message to the rest of the league: Good luck stopping this offense at full strength. Christian McCaffrey was the lynchpin, of course, running for 93 yards, but the 49ers tallied 146 as a team – the third straight game the Eagles have allowed at least that many rush yards to an opponent. (They hadn’t allowed more than 107 to any team prior to their bye week.) So what has suddenly become a major worry for the Eagles is being firmed up as a major strength for the 49ers. Their passing game was also humming, as Purdy picked on the Eagles’ back seven from the second quarter on, hitting Deebo Samuel for two of his four TD passes. But it was the movement and creases the 49ers generated with blocking up front that really fueled the big effort. The Eagles had two sacks but didn’t pressure Purdy unduly. Credit San Francisco’s offensive line for paving the way to a massive victory Sunday in a playoff-like atmosphere.


Next Gen stat of the game: Deebo Samuel gained a career-high plus-88 yards after catch over expected in Week 13, the fifth-most YACOE in a game by any player since 2018. Samuel has now gained the second-most YACOE (plus-174) this season and the most YACOE (plus-949) since entering the ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøin 2019.

¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch: With 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey’s second-quarter rushing touchdown, he joined Marshall Faulk and Lenny Moore as the only players in ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøhistory with at least 50 rushing touchdowns and 25 touchdown catches in their careers.


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EARLY WINDOW


Michael Baca's takeaways:


  1. Brandon Staley’s defense dominates in Foxborough. Avoiding what would’ve been a new low along L.A.’s roller-coaster season, the Chargers defense maintained a shutout to snap a three-game losing streak and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Bolts D dominated with fundamental play, minimizing breakout plays through sure tackling while the secondary secured tight coverage around the sticks and downfield. Defensive leaders Khalil Mack, Derwin James and Eric Kendricks helped turn up the heat on the Patriots in the second half, where the Chargers found all five of their sacks. With a pair on Sunday, Mack, 32, produced his fifth multi-sack game this season and his fourth in the last five games. The great defensive effort was necessary during a wet day in Foxborough that hindered all offensive play, but the Chargers still took care of business by producing Staley’s first shutout as head coach. Sunday marked the fewest points scored by the Chargers (six) in a win in franchise history, according to ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch, beating out the seven they scored in Week 10, 1963, to edge the Boston Patriots.
  2. QB change offers no change to Patriots’ offensive woes. There was little clarity on who would start on Sunday, but as Bailey Zappe trotted onto the field to begin the game it offered momentary optimism as New England elected to see what a change could do. The Patriots backup QB wasn’t asked to do very much and the strategy was beginning to see positive results as Rhamondre Stevenson found a groove during the second possession of the game. But Stevenson injured his ankle during that drive – losing a fumble on the same play to add insult to injury – rendering New England into a frustrating offensive display of short runs, passes and inconceivable third-and-long attempts. Zappe (13 of 23 for 141 passing yards) didn’t turn the ball over but failed to get the offense in the red zone and often played things too safe to keep an opposing defense on its heels. Had New England’s defense not played a good game, this one would’ve got even uglier for Bill Belichick’s team. Instead, the Patriots endured their second shutout loss of the season (Week 5 vs. New Orleans) and their seventh one-score defeat (leads NFL) of what has been a gloomy campaign. 
  3. Reason to worry about Chargers offense? It was an all-around bad day for a Chargers offense that put up a season-low in points and was held out of the end zone for the first time this season. The play-calling might have been affected by the New England weather, but L.A. didn’t adjust well, producing just 29 yards rushing off 24 total carries (1.2 YPC). Justin Herbert needed a run game to better utilize his downfield passing, but the Chargers’ star QB made the necessary short passes when called upon in a few key third-down situations. Of course, Keenan Allen (five receptions, 58 yards) was the main target in those instances, aiding results in two 38-yard field goals from Cameron Dicker, but his targets elsewhere were simply not reliable enough on Sunday, with Quentin Johnston and Austin Ekeler dropping easy passes for first downs. Suffocating the run game will be a point of interest for opposing defensive coordinators in the coming weeks, but, for now, the Chargers got away from what was a worrisome display. 


Next Gen stat of the day: Chargers LB Khalil Mack averaged his quickest pass rush get-off this season (0.75 seconds) en route to four QB pressures and two sacks on 26 pass rushes (15.4% pressure rate). Two of Mack’s pressures came across 11 matchups against Patriots right tackle Michael Onwenu, while the other two came across five matchups against Patriots LT Conor McDermott, who substituted in for Trent Brown throughout the game.

¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch: The Patriots are the first team to lose three straight games despite allowing 10 or fewer points since the Chicago Cardinals, who lost an NFL-record four straight such games in 1938.


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Kevin Patra's takeaways:


  1. Lions blast off to early lead, hold on late in New Orleans. In a blink of an eye, Detroit sprinted to a 21-0 lead, generated by big plays on offense and a Brian Branch interception. Jared Goff diced up the Saints defense, threading surgical passes. Sam LaPorta was uncoverable. It looked like the early-season Lions destroying opponents. Then, the lulls that cropped up in recent weeks reared their heads. The Lions went three-and-out three times in their next five possessions and failed to punch it in in the red zone, allowing the Saints to get back into the contest. But Detroit didn’t wilt. After New Orleans made it a five-point game, the Lions ground out two first downs to ice the contest. With the game on the line, Detroit put the ball in Goff’s hands. The QB rifled a pass on third-and-7 to LaPorta. Two runs later, the Lions faced another third-and-long. Goff stepped through pressure and found Josh Reynolds for the game-sealing first down. Those are the types of big plays winning teams make in crunch time.
  2. Miscues haunt Saints yet again. New Orleans was sleepwalking early. A trove of missed tackles plagued the defense. Juwan Johnson dropped a pass that turned into an INT. Derek Carr missed passes, and the ground game couldn’t churn yards. It was 21-0, with the Saints generating negative-6 yards of offense on their first three possessions. Then, the comeback began. Carr sliced up the Lions D. Chris Olave played spectacularly, making circus catches. The Saints cut a seemingly insurmountable deficit to three before the fourth quarter. Alas, the miscues returned. The D left LaPorta wide open. Carr had the ball popped out of his hand for a fumble, allowing Detroit to rebuild a double-digit lead. For the third time this season, Carr (concussion/back/shoulder) exited after a crushing blow. Jameis Winston took over but couldn’t complete the comeback, missing several passes in big spots. Dennis Allen’s crew played inspired to make a game of it, but the same issues that have troubled the Saints all season were on display again, leading to their third straight defeat.
  3. Lions D makes key plays but continues to struggle to get off the field. Detroit’s defense earned two turnovers on the day and generated a key fourth-down stop in the first quarter. The turnovers were massive in a close game, but they were more the product of offensive errors than forced by the defense. The interception should have been a caught pass, and the fumble was self-inflicted by the Saints. Credit Detroit for taking advantage on Sunday -- not having linebacker Alex Anzalone (hand) also hurt. But Dan Campbell’s D continues to give up massive yards (362 in Week 13), including big plays on third downs. For a 9-3 team to bat with the big boys in January, Detroit must find a pass rush and stiffen up down the stretch.


Next Gen stat of the game: Lions TE Sam LaPorta gained more than 100 receiving yards for the first time in his career, catching all nine of his targets for 140 yards and a touchdown with plus-55 receiving yards over expected.

¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch: Sam LaPorta had a career-high 140 receiving yards in Week 13 (nine receptions, TD), the most by a Detroit rookie tight end in franchise history. LaPorta became the second rookie TE since 1970 to have 140-plus receiving yards and a receiving TD in a game. He joins Jacksonville's Pete Mitchell (161 yards, TD) in Week 12, 1995.


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Kevin Patra's takeaways:


  1. Falcons defense forces three turnovers, leads way to road win. With Desmond Ridder and the offense stymied in the rain versus a good Jets defense -- earning 194 total yards -- Atlanta's defense made the game-changing plays. A second-quarter forced fumble led to the game's only touchdown. Jessie Bates snagged an interception of Tim Boyle, expertly reading the play as it unfolded. And the defense forced another late fumble to help seal the deal. Atlanta took advantage of a sieve Jets offensive line, bringing waves of pressure, led by Bud Dupree's two sacks and David Onyemata's four QB pressures. Yes, the Falcons were facing a bumbling Jets offense that can't get out of its own way, but for the second straight week Atlanta's D has made offenses pay. Until the offense can find a reliable gear, ATL will continue to lean on its playmaking defense.
  2. Same story, different day for Jets offense. For the umpteenth time this season, the Gang Green offense failed its defense. New York's D flew all over the field, wrecking Atlanta's offense at every turn. Yet, the offense failed to take advantage. It coughed up the ball, blew good field position, and went a woeful 2-of-15 on third downs. Tim Boyle wasn't the answer, as the game's starter missed a host of passes, completing 14 of 25 for 148 yards and a poor INT. Following the pick, Robert Saleh benched Boyle in favor of Trevor Siemian. The veteran QB throws a better ball than Boyle but was likewise ineffective. Siemian went 5-of-13 passing and struggled to navigate pressure, taking three sacks and fumbling three times (losing one). Neither QB is a great option, but it wouldn't be a surprise for Saleh to give Siemen a whirl. Boyle isn't it.
  3. Back-to-back wins give Falcons control of NFC South. It wasn't pretty, but Arthur Smith's club did what it needed to to stack another W. The Falcons win, coupled with a Saints loss on Sunday, gives Atlanta a one-game lead in the division with five to play. With divisional games against Tampa and Carolina on deck, Atlanta could push its advantage. However, Smith needs to get more production from Ridder and the offense. The young QB missed a boatload of passes Sunday against a ferocious Jets D in bad weather. More surprising was the lack of a run game from the Falcons, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry on the afternoon. If the offense can find its footing down the stretch, and the D continues to make plays, Atlanta could run away with the division crown.

 

Next Gen stat of the day: The Jets run defense allowed a season-best negative-39 rushing yards over expected against the Falcons in Week 13. The Jets held Bijan Robinson to just 6 rushing yards on eight carries in the first half and just 53 yards on 18 carries for the game. Robinson gained negative-17 RYOE against the Jets, his fewest rushing yards over expected in a game this season.

¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch: Atlanta's defense has gone 24 consecutive opponent possessions without allowing a TD, the longest active streak in the NFL. The last TD allowed by ATL was in Week 10, 2023, at ARI.


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Eric Edholm's takeaways:


  1. Kyler Murray, Trey McBride connection grows in shocking road win. The Cardinals had only one truly long drive in their first road win of the 2023 season, instead taking advantage of short fields (three scoring drives of 33 yards or fewer). But when they were on offense, Kyler Murray leaned heavily on his second-year tight end. Trey McBride caught eight passes on nine targets for 89 yards and the touchdown to give Arizona the lead for good. That one long drive came at the end of the first half, with Arizona actually gaining 109 yards from scrimmage (thanks to 10 penalty yards) on the 99-yard scoring drive. McBride caught passes of 17, 12 and 15 yards prior to the TD, and he actually had his first touchdown on the drive called back before scoring the next play – technically the fifth straight time McBride was targeted by Murray. McBride had a tough false start late in the third quarter, but he stood tall in a game when the Cardinals didn’t have many offensive options before Conner had a big second half. If this duo is back in Arizona next year, it could be one of the more intriguing QB-TE combos in the league. 
  2. Kenny Pickett ankle injury muddies Steelers’ waters. Pickett left Sunday’s game after a red-zone scramble and appeared to have his left ankle pinned on the tackle. He’d already come into the game with a sore right ankle, and with terrible field conditions, the Steelers were forced to go to backup Mitchell Trubisky late in the first half. It didn’t go well, even with a feel-good TD drive late. Their first three possessions of the second half ended in a Trubisky fumble, a missed field goal and a three and out. The fumble turned into a Cardinals TD, and they would take advantage of another short field later, taking a 24-3 lead midway through the fourth quarter on old friend James Conner’s run. The Steelers have a short week to figure out Pickett’s health, with the Patriots coming to town Thursday. It might not be the most intimidating opponent to face in such a situation, but the Patriots have played good defense and beat Trubisky in Pittsburgh last year. 
  3. Steelers can’t blame ugly game on bad weather. Twice Sunday, the game was delayed because of lightning in the area, and the road team appeared to handle the delays better than the hosts did. But this game was ugly before the game was postponed, and Pittsburgh can’t blame the conditions for how it played. The Cardinals were the most assertive and cohesive team Sunday, even with a late TD coming off the board, converting 10 of 17 third downs and wearing down the Steelers late with the run game. Even before Trubisky replaced Pickett, the offense struggled. Mason Cole had two shotgun snaps hit the ground and was buried on the fourth-down stop at the Arizona 1-yard line. And when Pittsburgh needed key stops late, the defense came up short. Nine Pittsburgh penalties for 77 yards didn’t help, including two illegal formations where the tackle wasn’t covered up. That’s Day 1 install stuff. There were also bad flags on defense and special teams, significantly impacting field position in sloppy conditions. Are the Steelers a playoff-caliber team? Losing this game undercuts their already shaky postseason credentials. 


Next Gen stat of the game: Kyler Murray was most productive passing underneath Sunday, completing 11 of 16 attempts for 109 yards and a touchdown on targets under 10 air yards. Murray generated plus-4.4 total EPA on attempts under 10 air yards, his most in a game on such attempts since Week 8, 2022. Murray completed only 2 of 7 attempts for 36 yards on attempts deeper than 10 air yards. His 36 total yards on attempts over 10 air yards is his fewest in a game on such attempts since Week 13, 2021.

¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch: In his first game in Pittsburgh as an opponent, James Conner ran for 105 yards and two second-half rushing touchdowns on 25 carries. The former Steelers back ran 15 times for 88 yards and both TDs after halftime. 


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Nick Shook's takeaways:


  1. Gardner Minshew delivers. An up-and-down affair in Nashville truly had it all for Minshew and the Colts. There was a drive-killing fumble, a gorgeous 36-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce, a lengthy stretch of drives that stalled and resulted in field goals, a frantic comeback powered by special teams and an efficient overtime drive that included a 55-yard connection with Pierce to set up a game-winning touchdown pass produced by a fantastic route combination. Through it all, Minshew did his job, avoiding throwing interceptions, tossing two touchdown passes and keeping a Jonathan Taylor-less Colts offense afloat by taking what the defense was giving him and never trying to be the hero. He ended up filling such a role in overtime by coming through in the clutch, scraping up against his ceiling as a veteran backup who the Colts needed to produce in a big spot. And deliver, he did, finishing 26 of 42 for 312 yards, two touchdowns and a passer rating of 100.5.
  2. Titans find rhythm, but lose a heartbreaker. Derrick Henry has owned the Colts in his illustrious career, and he didn't disappoint Sunday, rushing 21 times for 102 yards and two touchdowns. With Henry finding success, Will Levis was afforded time to operate and put together a solid day, even if the numbers (16 of 33, 224 yards, one touchdown) don't quite suggest it. But the good vibes from Tennessee's offense disintegrated over time, especially after Henry exited due to injury, and opened the door for a Colts comeback. Tennessee battled enough to force overtime, but a season filled with frustration welcomed another tough loss in overtime, dropping the Titans to 4-8. Titans fans can find a silver lining in the notion their offense wasn't a completely doomed operation Sunday, unlike in previous weeks. But that won't dull the sting of yet another defeat.
  3. This rivalry continues to entertain. First off, Indianapolis' defense deserves a ton of praise for helping the Colts get back into this game, finishing with a season-high 57.5 pressure rate and six sacks. But it would be negligent if I didn't give credit to the Colts' special teams, which almost single-handedly helped Indianapolis enter the fight in the second half. The Colts blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown, then forced a fumble with another perfectly-timed free rush off the edge on another punt, accounting for nine points and giving Indianapolis a six-point advantage. Not to be outdone, the Titans responded with an 11-play, 80-yard touchdown drive to tie the game, and only reached overtime because they had to replace their holder (the injured punter Ryan Stonehouse) with backup quarterback Ryan Tannehill, leading to a missed extra point. If that wasn't enough, they headed to overtime, where Tennessee converted a field goal, then surrendered a touchdown on a five-play, 71-yard final drive. This game has almost every element possible, save for bad weather. A contest played between two teams headed in different directions shouldn't be this entertaining, but not every game is Colts-Titans, a rivalry that still thrills even when the division isn't on the line.

 

Next Gen Stat of the game: Alec Pierce finished with a career-high plus-44 receiving yards over expected across six targets.

¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch: Michael Pittman's 11 receptions and 105 receiving yards Sunday gave him 10-plus receptions and 100-plus receiving yards in two straight games, joining Pro Football Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison (in 2002) as the only Colts players to do so in two straight games since the 1970 merger.


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Eric Edholm's takeaways:


  1. Dolphins defense showed it can thrive without Jaelan Phillips. Losing Jaelan Phillips to a season-ending injury last week, when the Dolphins were peaking defensively, felt like a big blow for a team bound to make the playoffs. But Sunday was a good first test post-Phillips for Miami’s defense, which collapsed the pocket quickly around quarterback Sam Howell and didn't allow the Commanders’ run game to get going. Andrew Van Ginkel set the tone early with a beautiful read of Howell and his pick-six made it a 17-0 Miami lead before the end of the first quarter. Zach Sieler also stepped up inside, and Bradley Chubb helped Van Ginkel with outside pressure. The Dolphins held Washington to 245 total yards, their sixth straight game (and eight out of nine games) holding the opponent to fewer than 300 yards of offense. Even with some second-half slip-ups, this was a complete performance. 
  2. Sam Howell continues to struggle with pressure, turnovers. It feels likely that Howell will be in the running to be Washington’s starting quarterback at the very least in 2024, and he might be the overwhelming favorite right now. Howell has been a pleasant surprise in the playmaking department this season, throwing for 18 TDs and running for five more (including two on Sunday). But in order to take the proverbial next step as a quarterback next season, he has to cut down on the sacks and turnovers. Granted, Washington’s pass protection – and, arguably, its play-calling – has been a big reason why Howell has been sacked a league-leading 58 times, for nearly 400 yards lost. Yet Howell must share some of that blame, as he insists on hanging on to the ball until the last possible moment. It’s admirable but not sustainable. Neither is Howell’s penchant for throwing the ball to the opponent. His pick-six in the first quarter – Howell’s third in as many games – helped dig a hole his team couldn’t get out of.
  3. Dolphins offense got off turnover schneid, dominated shorthanded Commanders. Even though the Dolphins won two straight coming in, averaging more than 400 yards of offense in the two, neither was a clean offensive performance. Two things have held back Miami’s explosive offense at times this season: early pressure and turnovers. Sunday, neither was an issue against an overmatched Commanders defense. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill hooked up on a 78-yard TD on their third play from scrimmage, and they got together one quarter later on a 60-yard catch and run. Miami didn’t get much going on the ground, although a 10-yard loss by Hill watered down the final numbers. The big takeaway was the return of De'Von Achane for the first time since Week 11 and for his first full game since Week 5. Achane totaled 105 yards from scrimmage and scored two rushing TDs, racking up the stats after halftime. The only potential bad news were the injuries to offensive tackle Terron Armstead and guard Robert Hunt.


Next Gen stat of the game: Dolphins LB Andrew Van Ginkel reached a top speed of 20.76 mph on his 33-yard pick-six, the fifth-fastest speed by a defensive ball carrier this season. Washington QB Sam Howell threw the pass in 1.26 seconds, the fastest INT of the season.

¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch: Following his 78- and 60-yard TD receptions against the Commanders, Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill now has 20 scores of at least 60 yards, tied for fourth all time with Bobby Mitchell. They’re behind DeSean Jackson (26), Jerry Rice (23) and Devin Hester (21).


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Houston Texans
2023 · 7-5-0
Denver Broncos
2023 · 6-6-0


Nick Shook's takeways.


  1. Houston's defense answers the call. Houston's last two drafts have catalyzed a transformation of this franchise in a relatively quick timeframe, and, on Sunday, their investments on the defensive side were the difference. Rookie Will Anderson recorded a season-high two sacks, notched four QB hits and eight pressures, causing frequent havoc in Denver's backfield and limiting the Broncos' ability to get much of anything going Sunday. He also tipped a Russell Wilson pass just enough to redirect it into the arms of Derek Stingley Jr. for an interception, leading to a Texans touchdown. Speaking of Stingley, he slid underneath a deep Wilson pass for a fantastic interception later in the second half for his second pick of the day, stopping Denver's momentum in its tracks at a crucial point in the game. And with the game on the line, a veteran offseason addition -- safety Jimmie Ward -- read Wilson's eyes and slid in front of his intended target in the end zone for a game-sealing interception. It was a total team effort on the defensive side for Houston, and the unit served as the difference in a huge win at a key point in the season. General manager Nick Caserio has plenty of reason to smile tonight.
  2. Denver goes down fighting. The Broncos' sudden return to contention has been the product of consistent effort, a defensive renaissance and improved play at quarterback. All three elements appeared Sunday, but because it took a while for the offense to join the party, the Broncos found themselves playing catch up. Russell Wilson failed to find the same success as he did in recent weeks, throwing three interceptions, with two being his fault. His final pick ended their hopes, but Wilson deserves credit for helping the Broncos get back into the game with a majestic touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton and multiple clutch conversions. Denver's defense deserves even more praise for weathering Houston's chunk play haymakers and preventing them from blowing this game open. The Broncos lost, yes, but Wilson was able to get them in position to win in the final seconds before making a desperate mistake. And above all, if we learned anything from Denver's performance Sunday, it's that these Broncos aren't going to lay down against anyone.
  3. C.J. Stroud continues to cook. The big play was the name of Houston's game on Sunday, even on an afternoon in which the Texans lost Tank Dell to a fractured fibula. With his fellow rookie out, Stroud turned to his favorite target, Nico Collins, for an assortment of long connections, racking up 173 yards and a touchdown on eight completions. Stroud and the Texans struggled to finish drives against Denver's stingy defense, but the rookie continued to thrill with some fantastic throws to help Houston stay ahead of Denver. They dominated time of possession early in the game, capitalized on a fourth-quarter takeaway and did enough to defeat one of the NFL's hottest teams. For a young squad that hasn't won in the recent past, Sunday was an achievement that wouldn't be possible without their ascending star quarterback.

 

Next Gen stat of the game: Nico Collins was targeted on a career-high 42.9% of routes Sunday, with 58.3% of targets being over 10 air yards. On targets of 10-plus air yards, Collins caught four of seven for 153 yards and a touchdown.

¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøResearch: With his 274 passing yards Sunday, Stroud pushed his total to 1,740 yards in his last five games, the most passing yards by a rookie in a five-game span in ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøhistory.


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