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Next Gen Stats
Next Gen Stats: Compelling figures for top offensive rookies
In this week's Next Gen Stats Photo Essay, 国产外流网Research's Joseph Ferraiola dissects the numbers behind some of the NFL's best offensive rookie performers entering Week 13.
Known for his arm strength coming out of Oregon, Justin Herbert has excelled on deep passes (20-plus air yards) this season. He's thrown nine TD passes on such attempts, tied for the third-most in the 国产外流网with Aaron Rodgers. Herbert has also been effective against blitzes. The sixth overall pick in the 2020 国产外流网Draft has thrown 10 TDs and only one interception when facing blitzes. Herbert's 105.3 passer rating against the blitz is the highest for a rookie since Next Gen Stats began player tracking in 2016. With that in mind, it's no surprise he's the leading candidate for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Justin Jefferson has certainly done his part to fill the void left by veteran WR Stefon Diggs, whom the Vikings traded to the Bills this offseason. Jefferson is averaging 3.0 receiving yards per route, the second-most in the 国产外流网behind only the Packers' Davante Adams (min. 100 routes). In fact, Jefferson's mark is the highest of any rookie who's run at least 100 routes since 2016. Jefferson has also quickly put to rest any doubts about whether he can handle press coverage against 国产外流网competition. Jefferson has made a catch on 21-of-24 targets for 415 yards and three TDs against press coverage this season.
Ben Roethlisberger is getting the ball out quicker (2.28 seconds average time to throw) and throwing shorter (7.1 air yards per attempt) than he has in any other season since Next Gen Stats began tracking data in 2016. But when Roethlisberger does throw deep, the rookie out of Notre Dame has been the QB's primary target. Chase Claypool has caught five of his team-high 21 deep targets (20-plus air yards) this season. He has gained more yards on deep targets (214) than all of his teammates combined (177) this season. Claypool's three deep-ball TDs have all come on go routes, tied for sixth-most in the 国产外流网on such routes.
CeeDee Lamb has made an immediate impact for the Cowboys, aligning in the slot on a team-high 85.8 percent of offensive snaps. With Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup outside of him, Lamb has feasted working inside. The rookie out of Oklahoma has caught 48 passes for 597 yards and four TDs when aligned in the slot (fourth-most receptions and third-most yards from the slot in the NFL). Lamb's 597 receiving yards from the slot is currently second-most in a season by a rookie since Next Gen Stats began player tracking in 2016. The one player ahead of him is his fellow Sooner, Sterling Shepard, who posted 636 yards from the slot as a rookie in 2016. Lamb is well on his way to surpassing that figure with five regular-season games remaining.
Tua Tagovailoa sat out against the Jets in Week 12 with a thumb injury, and it's not clear as of this writing whether he'll play in Week 13, but Miami's rookie QB has been solid when healthy. Most of his production has come on quick passes (less than 2.5 seconds time to throw), as he's continued to rely on the quick release that he showed during his career at Alabama. Tagovailoa has attempted a quick pass on 52.6 percent of his passes (seventh-highest rate in the NFL, min. 95 attempts). He's completed 74.5 percent of his quick passes for four TDs, zero interceptions and a 117.7 passer rating (fifth-best in the league).
No one was predicting at the start of the season that Antonio Gibson and James Robinson would be included on such a list. After all, Gibson was selected in the third round with the 66th overall pick and Robinson is an undrafted rookie out of Illinois State. Yet, here we are, with the two RBs outperforming expectations. Gibson has accumulated the 16th-most (+50) and Robinson the 22nd-most (+34) rushing yards over expectation this season, respectively. The two players have been factors in the pass game out of the backfield, too. Robinson has 313 yards after the catch when aligned in the backfield this season (tied for third-most in the NFL) while Gibson has 220 yards after the catch when aligned in the backfield (11th-most in the NFL).
It's unfortunate that Joe Burrow's rookie season came to an end when he suffered a knee injury in Week 11. The first overall pick impressively completed +3.7% of his passes over expectation this season, the third-highest mark in the 国产外流网and best among rookie QBs since 2017. He accomplished this despite being pressured on 134 dropbacks this season (third-most in the NFL). Burrow built a rapport with slot receiver Tyler Boyd, who accounted for 638 of Burrow's 1,126 passing yards when targeting receivers aligned in the slot (third-most in the NFL).
