¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íø

If the Chiefs are going to win a record third straight Lombardi Trophy, they'll do so similarly to how they've done it in three of the past five seasons. There's no mystery to the formula: a generational QB in Patrick Mahomes and his sidekick, Travis Kelce, one of the greatest tight ends ever; a Hall of Fame-caliber coach in Andy Reid, flanked by the terrific Steve Spagnuolo; a defense that's strong on all three levels (even without dogged cover man L'Jarius Sneed). But Kansas City might have to veer slightly from last year's road to a title. The 2023 Chiefs never really caught their stride in the regular season and went just 5-4 at Arrowhead Stadium during that span, ultimately putting them at a disadvantage in the playoffs. The 2024 Chiefs shouldn't count on Mahomes to go out barnstorming postseason opponents on the road every single week like Alexander The Great. Instead, they'll be well-served protecting home field a little more diligently -- and inherently, making a stronger push for home-field advantage -- in the race for three straight.

The Brandon Aiyuk drama finally concluded last week with a four-year, $120 million extension, and now Trent Williams appears to be ending his holdout and finalizing a new deal with the 49ers. (EDITOR'S UPDATE: On Tuesday, Williams agreed to a reworked three-year deal worth $82.66 million.) Two massive developments for the reigning NFC champions. Unfortunately, the franchise also experienced a frightening ordeal over the weekend: Rookie WR Ricky Pearsall was the victim of a shooting in an attempted robbery and the first-round pick will miss at least the first four games of the season. The offense returns the vast majority of a terrific group from last season, but the overall depth of this team still worries me. A rash of injuries would probably be the most likely thing to knock San Francisco off track, but a middling offensive line is another potential Achilles' heel. I have a lot of faith in this operation, with Kyle Shanahan leading the Niners to the playoffs in four out of the past five years, but there are some underlying concerns that can't yet be dismissed.

Derrick Henry might be the Ravens' second-most-important player in the first chunk of the regular season, with Baltimore opening against two tough defenses (including the defending champs on opening night), then playing games versus a pair of 2023 playoff teams (Dallas and Buffalo) before a critical contest at Cincinnati in Week 5. With the Ravens significantly revamping their offensive line this offseason, there could be some early bumps. Lamar Jackson isn't going to be put into any kind of shell, but Baltimore has warned that the OL cohesion won't come together like minute rice. That's why Henry carrying an outsized load early might be crucial, holding the fort until burner back Keaton Mitchell (torn ACL last December) can help out. Jackson remains the meal ticket, but Henry might have to be more than a little appetizer early.

The 2023 Lions were a few plays away from reaching a Super Bowl with a defense that started out somewhat promisingly last season but really slipped after the early-November bye. Naturally, a lot of the focus has been placed on how much difference a revamped secondary and a beefed-up front can do for this team. Interestingly, the offense didn't really cook until the defense had backslid a bit, so you almost have to marvel at how Detroit got to 12-5 in spite of very few complete performances -- offense, defense and special teams all getting it done -- after about Week 4. Believe it or not, I actually see this as a positive. The Lions were absolutely fearless, which was a big driver of their success, and I don't expect that to change much this season. Now the talent level has risen, if only incrementally, but the biggest gains might be in the secondary and defensive front -- two areas where Detroit arguably had the most room for growth. The NFC North is suddenly a bear, and the journey might not be as gilded at times, but I think the Lions can find a way to forge through with another banner season.

So much has been put on the shoulders of Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts -- the Eagles' fire-and-ice HC-QB duo -- that this season almost feels like a referendum on both of them. That is a somewhat-unhealthy dynamic in my mind, but it's not like winning can't at least temporarily cure what ails them. Hurts reportedly has looked much sharper and more dialed in this preseason, and Sirianni's coordinator hires of Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio have earned praise to this point. What worries me is that the Philadelphia brass appears to be setting the bar about as high as it can be set for this season. Sirianni has won two-thirds of his regular-season games, but Philly completely collapsed in the final two months of last season -- and then it took the Eagles more than a week to announce they were bringing the head coach back after the final insult on Wild Card Weekend. There's a volatility here that's unsettling; this thing could wholly go off the rails. But for now, I'm buying into the top-tier talent -- fueled by sincere urgency -- carrying this team through.

Well, the cat of prey is out of the bag now: I picked the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, one of two on staff to do so. (Thanks for keeping me company, Gennaro!) First, some explaining: Why do I have them sixth? Well, clearly, the Bengals are needing to rebound from 9-8 and Joe Burrow's season-ending injury, and this Ja'Marr Chase situation has got me a little fidgety, though I'm assuming at this point he'll still be a major factor for them, whether or not he's on the field in Week 1. The defense also needs fixing. Is it there yet? We'll see. My hope is for a formula that somewhat mimics what the Lions have executed: great on offense, opportunistic on defense. Many of the ingredients were there in 2023, but Burrow never was healthy and the secondary took a big step backward. If Cincy can keep Burrow upright and see any measurable improvement on D, these Bengals can get there. Am I buttering both sides of the bread by ranking them sixth and having them win it all? That's for you, dear reader, to decide.

I've been gently warning people that Houston might not quite be ready for prime time, even if it's hard not to love the direction of the franchise, resetting in such a quick fashion. The 2023 season was an unquestioned success, ushering in the C.J. Stroud/DeMeco Ryans era in exceptional fashion and setting this team up for success. But I've also argued that we sort of graduated the Jaguars (whom I ranked No. 9 last preseason) to a similar level last offseason, and since their fall from an 8-3 perch last season, they've sort of been relegated to middling status. The same could happen with the Texans, who faced one of the league's easier schedules (which included some bad losses, let's be fair) a year ago and who now have one of the tougher slates in 2024. I'm not saying Houston is suddenly a bad team. But I am saying that going 9-8 and missing the playoffs isn't out of the picture.

I'm fully prepared to take an early-season bath when the Bills face a tough stretch while they are breaking in quite a few new faces. It's going to be a process, even with robo-QB Josh Allen capable of offsetting some shortcomings. I've seen a lot of handwringing about the losses of wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, though I'm personally more worried about replacing guys such as linebacker Matt Milano (for now?) and center Mitch Morse. But once Buffalo solves those internal questions, I still think Allen and a decent core of talent will emerge from the gauntlet and remain a postseason threat. It's very hard to argue the Bills are a better team on paper right now than the group they ran out last season, but that doesn't mean they can't be superior by season's end.

Jordan Love was allowed to work through his issues early last season, and his tremendous back stretch has helped set this up as a potentially terrific year in Green Bay. Love won't be able to carry this team alone, and I have some questions with the secondary, the special teams and the offensive line depth/cohesion. Jeff Hafley's also a key figure as the new defensive coordinator, replacing Joe Barry -- the most recent coordinator to be scapegoated in Titletown. Hafley's regarded as a detail-oriented teacher and aggressive (aren't they all?) play-caller. The former Boston College head coach must adjust to defending ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøoffenses, but he seems to have a grasp of . The Lions are Super Bowl contenders, the Bears are nipping at the Packers' heels and the Vikings aren't too far off the pace, so this division's certainly no walk in the park. But if Green Bay's defense and special teams are marginally better, and the offense keeps its November-through-January pace up, this could be a special season.

They've averted crisis with the CeeDee Lamb deal and found a way to kick other cans, such as Dak Prescott's contract situation, down the road a bit longer. And really, when you're as talented as Dallas is, and you have most of your team ready to go, you should win. But with Prescott and Mike McCarthy facing such pressure-packed seasons and the Cowboys drawing a much tougher schedule than a year ago, reaching the 12-win plateau Dallas has hit in each of the past three seasons feels difficult. That puts even more emphasis on playoff performance, which is where the 'Boys really struggled over the past few seasons. This is why I have them 10th and not higher.

As with the Cowboys, the winning-in-the-playoffs thing is kinda big for the Dolphins. As in, they haven't done it since the 2000 season. They've changed coaches seven times since then (10, if you count interims). With current head coach Mike McDaniel, they have hope, and his recent contract extension likely means he's not going anywhere anytime soon. Miami has a chance to be undefeated heading into the Week 6 bye, and the Fins could keep it rolling even past that. The schedule unfolds quite nicely early in the season, then stiffens up after Thanksgiving. It's similar in that regard to the schedule last year, when Miami started 9-3 but won just two more games from Week 14 on, ultimately suffering a first-round playoff exit. It will be critical for new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver to keep his unit together -- and do so without as much firepower as the 2023 defense had. The Dolphins' D was decimated by injuries down the stretch, and they sank thereafter. That can't happen again. 

With Aaron Rodgers back and operating behind an improved offensive line, I've decided the Jets deserve a spot this high to start the year. I had them even higher to start last season (No. 10), and we know how that went. But it's not all on Rodgers. I think running back Breece Hall -- another year removed from ACL surgery -- is going to have a big season. And I believe in Gang Green's O-line, mostly because of its depth. Of course, yes, Rodgers gives me hope. I know history says that it's tough to have a great defense two years in a row, but there's enough back on that side of the ball to make me moderately confident the Jets' D will be pretty darned solid, at the very least. This is also the year for New York to take advantage of Buffalo and Miami shedding salary in the offseason, while the Patriots go through another QB change. But will it happen? That's another matter altogether. 

I feel much better now that Justin Herbert has returned to practice, and even more so after the Chargers swung a trade for backup Taylor Heinicke. Big Easton Stick fan here and all, but he wasn't proving himself dependable in the preseason. Jim Harbaugh carried over his "" mantra from Michigan, and it seems to be playing out as we speak with each transaction. (Yes, Stick remains on the roster, but you know what I mean.) There's tangible excitement around this team with Herbert cleared from the plantar fascia injury that held him back this summer, but the other half of Harbaugh's rhetorical coin -- "... " -- still feels a ways off from coming to fruition for the Bolts. That said, the coach did turn a five-win Wolverines team into a top-15 group in his first year in Michigan, and it wouldn't shock me if he leads a Chargers squad that won five games in 2023 into the top half of the league by season's end.

I've been putting the Browns a shade higher than this all offseason, drafting off a wildly entertaining and mostly terrific 2023 campaign in which they won games in myriad ways, showing toughness and resilience along the way, even if a disappointing playoff finish followed a rash of injuries. And oh yeah, that defense is legit. But there's a bugbear that can no longer be dismissed, and it's Deshaun Watson, who's become a pretty dubious figure over the past few years. He arguably played the of his Cleveland tenure against the Ravens last season right before he was lost for the year. Now, Watson is coming off shoulder surgery, and he reportedly had while sitting out the preseason-game action. What I'm wondering is, how can anyone feel confident about him at this moment? Plus, a lot of the guys who were injured last season remain , and the Browns might not get much from their rookie class in Year 1, with top pick Michael Hall Jr. going on the Commissioner's Exempt List. Cleveland's ceiling is higher than this, but consider me a little skittish right now.

If the Rams can get to their Week 6 bye in decent shape, I'll be impressed. While several of their injured players are by Week 1, not all will, with health (and tackle 's two-game suspension) complicating in the season. This will be the first time this team enters a season without Aaron Donald on defense in more than a decade. Los Angeles has to face some tough opponents in its first five games, with three of those contests being on the road. And the Rams will have to hope that Matthew Stafford can stay healthy; don't forget that QB2 Jimmy Garoppolo is suspended the first two games, which means the untested Stetson Bennett will be the backup. The Rams' firepower suggests they'll be in the mix, but there's no guarantee they can withstand a slow start again like they did last season.

My cautious optimism around this Bears team has as much to do with the overall health of the roster as it does with the arrival of Caleb Williams. And let me tell you, I spent a good chunk of June, July and maybe even early August tapping the brakes on Williams, arguing that he might not levitate onto Soldier Field in Week 1 and invoke instant wizardry. Then I watched Williams play in the preseason, and ... maybe all my guff was unnecessarily cautious. We'll see. Bears brass has said it wants Williams thriving in , which I would also say is a statement of support for this improved roster. Even so, to me, that thought evokes prime Derrick Rose more than it does, say, Kirk Hinrich. Tough division, but the Bears have most of what they need to make a run for the playoffs and perhaps even push the Lions for NFC North supremacy.

Have we forgotten about Jacksonville? I haven't. The loss of Calvin Ridley and a few defensive pieces is something to monitor, and the first four games are an absolute bear: at Miami, vs. Cleveland, at Buffalo and at Houston. But if the Jaguars can weather those early tests, I think they can do pretty well for themselves and challenge for a playoff spot again. Trevor Lawrence has been more good than bad over the past two years, and his admission that he was for parts of last season matched how he looked at times behind a shaky O-line. Assuming that unit is fixed, the addition of rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. should help elevate Lawrence and the offense, while a playmaker-led defense will take a step up from 2023. Will that be enough for Jacksonville to make a postseason run after collapsing out of the playoff picture down the stretch last season?

Let's ride ... or last ride? It's clear that Russell Wilson, who was named the Steelers' Week 1 starter, is entering a flashpoint campaign at age 35. This is his third team in four seasons, and his career hasn't been ascending over that period. Wilson seemed to win the job as much for his work in May and June as for what he did in July and August -- or, to put it another way, Justin Fields wasn't able to wrest the job away. Not yet, anyway. Amazingly, the Steelers are paying Fields -- who's a decade younger than Wilson -- on the final year of his rookie deal on his one-year pact, and one might assume the Steelers would like to see Fields receive some meaningful time in a contract season. However, that only likely happens if Wilson is hurt or ineffective. Perhaps Wilson has one more great season in him, but there's no question he's running out of favorable chances to extend a brilliant career as a primary starter. At least for now, the Steelers' hopes for this season run parallel to Wilson's play.

I might not have loved every single move by the Falcons, but in no way can I deny that they're making a big push, spending the offseason adding Kirk Cousins and a slew of receivers, then using the preseason to supplement the defense with Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons. The NFC South is a winnable division, and I think more competent coaching will make a difference in Atlanta. The Falcons' schedule features a few early tests that will tell us how they stack up, but the remainder of their slate is eminently manageable. Cousins has one of the better groups of weapons in the NFL, the offensive line is strong and the pass rush should at least be a smidge improved. But it's going to take Raheem Morris' best coaching to develop Atlanta into a dangerous team that other clubs fear. 

The Bucs opted to keep several major pieces in place after last season's late run to seal the NFC South, upset the Eagles on Wild Card Weekend and scare the daylights out of the Lions in Detroit. You certainly can understand the thinking there, but there was more change than I think people realize this offseason. New offensive coordinator Liam Coen will try to keep Baker Mayfield in the groove the QB found last season, and we can't assume he'll succeed, even with solid parts around Mayfield. There are some potential upgrades on offense, thanks to the addition of rookies Graham Barton and Jalen McMillan, but the defense could take a step back, even if only a small one. The losses of Shaquil Barrett, Devin White and Carlton Davis III can't be glossed over, and replacing all of them won't be easy.

There are a lot of arrows pointing in the right direction here, and yet, there’s just a little trepidation as we enter the unknown with Anthony Richardson. He’s clearly a gifted playmaker who can toy with defenses when he's at his very best, but health concerns and some so-so reports emerging and the preseason have me hedging just a tad. The range of outcomes for this team feels pretty big. If Richardson and an inexperienced secondary thrive, the Colts have the skill-position talent and depth in the trenches to make their first postseason run in a few years. But if not, they could fall as far as the basement of an improved AFC South. The former outcome feels more likely than the latter, but this is looking like a tough team to project this season.

I’m encouraged about what Mike Macdonald can do with this defense in Year 1, even in a tough NFC West. There’s talent on all three levels, so much so that the Seahawks felt they could some pass-rush depth. There might be a question at linebacker, but I think it’s a solid unit at worst. I’m also quite interested to see what Ryan Grubb can accomplish as a first-year ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøplay-caller with Geno Smith and an excellent group of receivers. But the offensive line issue remains, and Smith had some rough patches last season. Can he rebound to his 2022 level as he approaches his 34th birthday? We’ll see. There’s only so much Grubb or Smith can do if the OL problem isn’t solved. The 49ers and Rams ²¹°ù±ð²Ô’t going anywhere, and the Cardinals are coming.

Since we last met, J.J. McCarthy began making a run at the starting job and ... you know what happened after that. It was an extremely disappointing development for a first-round QB who started his offseason very slowly but looked to be coming on strong in the preseason. That’s not to say that Sam Darnold ³¦²¹²Ô’t thrive in an offense with Justin Jefferson, a good offensive line and several other playmakers. Perhaps Darnold has his first real chance to thrive in the NFL, given the personnel, and the defense has enough pieces to make incremental gains over last year. But the schedule is no joke, especially in the NFC North, where the other three teams might be serious playoff contenders. I don’t think the Vikings ²¹°ù±ð²Ô’t a playoff contender suddenly, and Kevin O’Connell showed me he could coach amid a QB mess a year ago -- with eight of their 10 losses coming by a total of 31 points -- but I think they’re still a year away.

The Cardinals have earned some measured optimism, thanks to the way they steadily improved last season, while Jonathan Gannon stiff-armed many of his critics by leading a team that backed down from no one and displayed cutting-edge creativity. With Kyler Murray getting back in the saddle for last year's respectable finish and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., there are signs of both progress and hope. Arizona has drafted impressively the past few years, adding depth on both sides of the ball, but the biggest test remains the defense. Losing BJ Ojulari for the season and first-rounder Darius Robinson for the first part of the campaign will sting, and the division is no cakewalk. If they can make moderate improvements defensively and maintain their us-against-the-world mentality, the Cardinals could double their win total from a year ago and enter 2025 as one of the more intriguing teams on the rise.

I think we’re sleeping on the Titans a bit. It’s taken me a while to arrive at this point, but if you take a look at their wholesale improvements in three key areas -- offensive line, receiver and cornerback -- it’s easier to see the on-paper upgrades. Assuming Will Levis can build off his respectable rookie season, there’s a clear path for team improvement, especially when you consider the Titans lost seven one-score games last season, including two in overtime. Even in the AFC South, which is far stronger than it was a few years ago, they can compete, if most things go right. Then again, the Falcons were talking with optimism about Desmond Ridder at this point in 2023. A lot depends on Levis stepping up.

The social media feedback I was getting after my glowing, love-the-effort review of the Commanders from my last rankings is that I am a wee bit more upbeat about their chances than even people close to the team might be. And I get it. There are still a lot of boxes that need checking, and at a few high-priority positions, such as offensive tackle and cornerback. But I think Washington got the biggest position right this offseason with Jayden Daniels, whose scrambling ability can help cover for some of those blocking concerns, though obviously not all. I also think there was a big coaching upgrade. Dan Quinn has a great career mark of making teams better -- both as an assistant and head coach -- in his first year on staff. The decision to trade Jahan Dotson away caught me off guard, but I still think Daniels and Quinn will inject major life into this team. If Washington can catch the Bucs napping in Week 1 ahead of Week 2's home opener against the Giants, a 2-0 start is possible.

Sean Payton squeezed eight wins out of a team last season that lost one game by 50 and started 1-5, doing so with a quarterback he paid to go away this offseason. That, to me, says he might do even better with a quarterback he really seems to like: Bo Nix. He's sort of been the forgotten rookie QB of the first-round six-pack, but Nix has a chance to be in the Offensive Rookie of the Year running if he can get the Broncos back into the playoffs for the first time in eight years. If the run defense improves and some of the young players heading into their second year in the system start flourishing, I wouldn't be stunned if Denver is competitive. Russell Wilson's cap hit helped sap the team of veteran depth and high-end talent, but Payton and Nix are a power duo for the future. Buy your stock now.

The NFC South is up for grabs, and the Saints’ schedule at large isn’t much tougher on paper than it ended up being last season, which was one of the league’s easiest in 2023. Derek Carr finished strong after a tough first few months in New Orleans, and he has a good cast of playmakers back. If the offensive line isn’t a morass and new coordinator Klint Kubiak can develop a stronger red-zone package, the Saints could improve on their nine wins from a year ago. Then again, it’s hard not to cast doubt on a team that beat just three quarterbacks last season who are scheduled to start Week 1 in 2024 (Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield and Gardner Minshew II); the rest of those nine victories came against projected backups and/or QBs now out of the league. The 2023 Saints were 2-6 against opponents who finished with winning records. Dennis Allen could feel some heat if New Orleans doesn't hold up early on against some tough teams, including the Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons and Chiefs. 

It’s entirely possible I’m not seeing the forest for the trees, and that this ranking is too short-sighted and low. After all, the team features a true No. 1 receiver (Davante Adams), a potential rookie stud (TE Brock Bowers) and arguably the league’s best DT-DE combo (Christian Wilkins and Maxx Crosby). But the pairing that scares me most is the one that arguably matters more, and that’s the quarterback and offensive coordinator. Gardner Minshew went 7-6 off the bench with a moderately talented Colts team last season, and bully for him, but it’s hardly the most inspiring QB situation going. Especially with Luke Getsy calling plays after his Bears offenses finished 28th and 20th in yards over the past two seasons. Not saying Minshew (or Aidan O’Connell) and Getsy ³¦²¹²Ô’t get it done. But the margin for error feels pretty thin for a team that isn’t teeming with higher-end talent and features a good -- but hardly dominant -- defense.

There’s only so much room for growth imaginable here until we see Daniel Jones perform somewhere close to the level he did in 2022, when he was good but hardly transcendent. Helping his cause are a legitimate WR1 in waiting in Malik Nabers and an offensive line that added several parts this offseason -- and there’s absolutely nowhere for that group to go but up. The Giants addressed the pass rush by trading for Brian Burns, which was a must; they blitzed relentlessly last year and were near the bottom in sack rate. Yet, with the loss of Saquon Barkley, as well as the reality of Jones and a very young secondary facing the fire this season in a division that features two heavyweights and a suddenly intriguing Commanders team, my optimism for the 2024 Giants thriving is fairly limited. 

The muddled quarterback situation is a today concern, as Drake Maye will take over at some point. That much became especially clear when it felt like Maye had a chance to win the Week 1 job. The today-and-tomorrow concern is an offensive line that has fallen hard and fast in recent years, patched together with a potentially decent interior but some major questions at tackle. The defense won’t be some pushover unit at all, but the trade of Matthew Judon and the indefinite loss of Christian Barmore have me worried. Last year, the Patriots had a competent defense and won four games by a total of 15 points. Plus, they’ve been 9-16 in Foxborough the past three seasons combined and have some tough road games this season, including at San Francisco in Week 4. That’s a lot on the plate of first-year head coach Jerod Mayo.

There’s a very good chance, I suspect, that the Panthers won’t end up back in this spot by season’s end, because I believe Bryce Young will take steps forward and quell any bust talk stemming from a trying first season. With new head coach Dave Canales running a more efficient system and with better blocking and playmaking talent at his disposal, the Panthers won’t run out the league’s most feckless offense again. But my optimism rises only so high because of Carolina’s defense, which has big questions at cornerback and edge rusher following some departures and trades this offseason. There’s a chance the defense could slip back a bit in 2024, even while the Panthers ²¹°ù±ð²Ô’t scheduled to face many truly elite offenses. This thing is headed in the right direction, but projecting a Texans-like turnaround this season just feels like tilting at windmills right now.