Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of each week.
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HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 15.6
Michelle: This projection is far too low for the potential Offensive Rookie of the Year. Nix has scored at least 16 fantasy points in five straight weeks and has averaged 25.6 points per game over his last four home contests. In his last two games played in Denver, he put up eight touchdowns, zero turnovers and nearly 59 fantasy points. The last three quarterbacks to play at home against the Browns each scored at least 18 fantasy points: Jayden Daniels (19.7), Jalen Hurts (21.9) and Derek Carr (18.7).
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.0
Michelle: Despite playing with Mac Jones while his team got blown out, 52-6, Thomas still put up 13.6 fantasy points against the Lions in his last game played. Heading Sunday's game vs. Houston, it appears Trevor Lawrence will return to action for Jacksonville, which would be a huge bump for this rookie receiver's fantasy outlook. Thomas has scored at least 15 fantasy points in four of his last six games played with Lawrence, and this weekend's matchup is a juicy one.
The Texans have allowed at least one wide receiver to hit 14-plus fantasy points against them in each of their last seven games, with eight WRs scoring 17-plus points vs. Houston in that span. In Thomas' first game against the Texans, he recorded six catches for 86 yards and a touchdown, adding an additional 13 yards rushing (21.9 fantasy points).
PROJECTED POINTS: 9.0
Matt: I’ve become a Valdes-Scantling truther in a concerningly short amount of time ... but the signs are too strong to ignore in New Orleans. In his second and third game with the Saints (Weeks 10 and 11), he led the team with 180 air yards and scored three touchdowns on five catches. He’s clearly assumed the Rashid Shaheed role that produced four top-25 wide receiver finishes in the first five weeks of the season -- and he's the only Saints wideout worth targeting with Shaheed and Chris Olave out.
The icing on the cake (or, this week, whipped cream on the pie): The Rams' defense in ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøPro’s deep-passing efficiency metric and has surrendered seven touchdowns on deep throws (20-plus air yards) this season, tied for second-most in the league. This is a dream matchup, and Valdes-Scantling legitimately only needs one play to top this projection.
PROJECTED POINTS: 9.9
Matt: It's been a little while since I featured Otton in this column, but he delivered consistently before and needs a little hype after being fantasy irrelevant for nearly a month. He's really only logged one truly bad game since mid-October (4.0 fantasy points in Week 12), considering he had a Week 11 bye and recorded eight targets and 8.5 points in Week 10. Meanwhile, his performances in Weeks 7-9 were the best at the position. And looking at this week's matchup ...
No team has allowed more fantasy points per game to tight ends than Carolina. Even with Mike Evans back in the fold for Tampa, I feel more than confident starting Otton as a top-tier tight end, fully trusting him to reach double digits in this matchup.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 10.6
Michelle: In Week 12, Chubb received 20 carries and found the end zone twice -- but that was his first game of the season with 11-plus fantasy points. He averaged just 6.2 fantasy points per game in his first four outings. Despite seeing a decent amount of work on the ground, Chubb has still yet to eclipse 60 scrimmage yards in a game. Due to his inefficiency on the ground and his non-existence as a receiver, Chubb's fantasy points are completely reliant on getting into the end zone. Unfortunately for Chubb fantasy managers, the Broncos have allowed just five rushing touchdowns to running backs this entire season.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.6
Michelle: The Cardinals' offense has been a roller coaster this season. You simply never know what you're going to get from this unit in any given week. The Vikings will be a tough matchup for Conner, who's seen his opportunities in the run game diminish in recent weeks. (He has just 19 carries for 41 yards over the last two games combined.) Conner has averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry in three of his last four games. The Vikings, on the other hand, have allowed just 3.7 yards per carry and four rushing touchdowns to running backs in 2024. Only two running backs have hit 12-plus fantasy points against Minnesota since Week 3.
PROJECTED POINTS: 16.2
Matt: I won't lie to you: It was hard to find "Lowers" I loved this week, so consider Williams a "Lower" I like. Simply put, Williams has fallen short of 12 fantasy points (let alone 16.2) in four straight games -- and it's worth noting that Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned five games ago. Williams has scored just one touchdown in the past four games after notching at least one in each of the first seven contests of the season.
The matchup with the Saints is pretty good, which will likely raise your confidence in starting Williams, but I'm going to be hesitant until I see his production return to the RB1 stratosphere. For now, he's still a solid RB2, but with tempered expectations.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.1
Matt: Pittman was a nice play last week -- I even streamed him in a league -- in a good matchup with the pass-funnel Lions defense. This week against the Patriots and Christian Gonzalez, the confidence meter is somewhere in the negatives once again. Pittman has been incredibly spotty all year, with just two games over 65 receiving yards and two touchdowns in total. Prior to last Sunday, he had gone four straight games without a double-digit fantasy performance.
After an encouraging showing against the Jets in Week 11, Anthony Richardson came crashing back down to earth with a 39.3 percent completion rate last week. His 10 completions per game simply do not give us any consistent hope for Pittman. The wideout is nearly a must-bench for me.
