¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íø

Kirk is the Jaguars' leading receiver this season, and he is clearly the top option against zone coverage. He leads the team in targets, yards (by more than 100) and touchdowns against zone. That will be important this week, as the Niners run zone on 77 percent of plays (league average is 71 percent). Somewhat surprisingly, the Niners are in the top 10 in yards and touchdowns allowed to receivers since Week 5. Plus, the Jags will likely have to throw a bunch to keep up with the Niners' offense. Kirk is a strong start this week. 

Hopkins has played two games with Will Levis. In the first, he had his first career game with 100 yards and three touchdowns, scoring just under 35 fantasy points. In the other, he had 10.5 fantasy points. If that’s the floor, it’s a much safer floor than the one he had with Ryan Tannehill. Hopkins clearly brings more upside with Levis, who has a strong arm and can win downfield better than the veteran QB. This has the potential to be one of those blow-up spots for Hopkins, as the Bucs have allowed the second-most yards and touchdowns to receivers since Week 5. He is a strong start this week. 

Pittman has at least eight targets in three of his last four games and already has five games with double-digit targets this season. That volume is simply too good to get away from and keeps him in play each and every week. It’s why he has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season and more than 14 in four straight. You might fear the old narrative that Bill Belichick will take away the opposing team’s best weapon. But New England has allowed the fifth-most yards and second-most touchdowns to receivers since Week 5, without the lockdown secondary it has had in the past. Pittman is a must-start option this week. 

It’s been a very up-and-down season for Lockett and the entire Seahawks offense. In the last month, he has topped 15 fantasy points twice and been held under eight fantasy points in the other two. He has had at least eight targets in three of his last four games. The potential for one of those blow-up games makes Lockett a strong consideration in Week 10. The Commanders have allowed the second-most yards and touchdowns and third-most fantasy PPG to receivers this season. They are in the top four across the board since Week 5 as well. The floor might not be the safest, but the matchup makes this a week to roll the dice on Lockett. 

The Texans have wisely been running the ball less and less and letting rookie sensation C.J. Stroud air it out more. Last week’s results speak for themselves. Dell exploded for more than 100 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the WR1 on the week. Collins had 54 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the WR13. He has five games with more than 12 fantasy points and Dell has three games over 20. There will be volatility week to week, but the upside is worth the risk on both guys most weeks, especially since they should continue to develop and get better. Both are worthy of a shot again this week, given the bye weeks and the need to score often in a matchup with the Bengals. Noah Brown is a high-upside streaming option, as well.  

(UPDATE: Nico Collins has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bengals with a calf injury.)

If you read the Tyler Lockett portion above, you know this is largely about the matchup. If you didn’t, allow me to recycle the stats: The Commanders have allowed the second-most yards and touchdowns and third-most fantasy PPG to receivers this season. They are in the top four in those categories since Week 5 as well. And don’t look now but JSN was the Seahawks' leading receiver in Week 9. He ran 28 routes (Lockett led the way with 31) and caught six of seven targets for a team-high 63 yards. If you are diving a little deeper this week, he is an upside shot worth taking. 

Watson was a sit last week and was held to a season-low 4.7 fantasy points. He has scored fewer than seven fantasy points in three straight games and has failed to reach 12 in a game in 2023. He was banged up last week, too. Watson is a very explosive player, but Jordan Love and the Packers just cannot take advantage of his skill set right now. Half of his targets this season have been deemed uncatchable by PFF. The Steelers might look like a good matchup on paper, but they’ve allowed only one touchdown to receivers since Week 5, with a 72.4 passer rating allowed when targeting the position. Until we see better results from Watson, he has to hit the bench. 

Flowers has hit his first slump of the season after putting up fewer than 20 yards in two straight games. He had fewer than seven fantasy points in each of those contests. I don’t like his chances of bouncing back this week against the Browns. Flowers has just 72 yards this season against man coverage. His 36.2 passer rating when targeted against man is the worst in the ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøamong receivers with a minimum of 70 routes ran. The Browns run man 41 percent of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. They’ve also allowed the third-fewest yards and second-fewest fantasy PPG to receivers this season.

Meyers had a rushing touchdown in Week 9, but he did not do a whole lot besides that, catching two of five targets for 38 yards. Now he faces the Jets, who have allowed the fewest yards, touchdowns and fantasy PPG to wideouts this season. They’ve given up one touchdown to the position all year. Meyers also runs 67 percent of his routes out wide, meaning he will see a lot of Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. It’s OK to roll the dice on Davante Adams, but I would get away from the secondary option with such a tough opponent. 

Dotson has started to break out. He has scored a touchdown and has more than 16 fantasy points in two straight games. He’s a player I definitely want on my roster, just not in my starting lineup in this matchup. The Seahawks have allowed the third-fewest yards to receivers since Week 5. Even last week, when they allowed a bunch of points to the Ravens, they held (using the term lightly) Lamar Jackson to fewer than 200 passing yards. Just like with the Raiders, I would still play the top option in Terry McLaurin here. But I would get away from the secondary option in a tough matchup.