You watch football with your heart. You play fantasy with your head. That can lead to some interesting internal battles when it comes to player evaluations. Sometimes, you see what you want to see from a player. Welcome to an occasional series on Fantasy Rorschach Tests.
"Nothing in the world causes so much misery as uncertainty." – Martin Luther
The 16thcentury Protestant Reformation bearssomeresemblance to the 21stcentury Detroit Reformation.Both involve groups of true believers expressing frustration over the failings of the status quo.Both may also end in excommunications if things go poorly.
Our interests are not in the divine. Rather, we'd prefer to divine if D'Andre Swift's fantasy acts will lead you to heaven or hell in 2021.The former Georgia star was considered one of the top running back prospects in the 2020 draft.His Motor City landing spot didn'tgenerate excitement akin to Clyde Edwards-Helaire going to Kansas City, though theyhadnearly identical fantasy totalsafter 16 weeks.
Swift's story was one of progression. Hebegan the season behind Adrian Peterson on the Lions' depth chart.After nearly two months, Detroit decidedto increase Swift's workload.By Week 10, the rookie had become the starter -- a move that Peterson himself said shouldhave.
Our desire for lineardevelopment means wewant to project bigger and better for D'Andre Swift. In words and deeds, the Lionsare suggesting otherwise.Or are they?
Opportunity
Through Week6, Detroit's backfieldbelonged to Adrian Peterson. The veteranplayed 41 percent of the snaps and handledmore than 14 touches per game -- a number skewed by his 22 carries in Week 3. Contrast that with Swift, who averaged close to 10 handles per contest in that stretch.By season's end, the turntables had turned.Swift was on-field 40 percent of the time and handling nearly 15 touches per game.Peterson had dropped to 26 percent and eight touches per contest.
Those numberscouldhave been even more lopsided toward Swift.He missed three games midway through the year, leaving Detroit to turn toKerryon Johnson.
The phrase "new year, new me" appliesto both the Lions andthat person on social media you keepmeaning to unfollow.Every season feels like a reboot in Detroit. This yearis no different. A new coaching staff, new players and new roles in the offenseare afoot.That could put adamper on hopes that Swift is meant for something more.Also … Jamaal Williams.
Theformer Packers backsigned as a free agent, complicating the Lions running back riddle.Williams was the stumbling block to Aaron Jones being a true workhorse in Green Bay. He averaged155 touchesperseason, five fewer than Swift hadin his entire rookiecampaign.With Peterson (free agent) and Johnson (Eagles)out of the mix, Williams will see plenty of work.
You don't need totake my word for it. New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn made waves by calling Williams an "A back".We can debate Lynn's exact meaning of the phrase,but the intent is clear.Any hope thatSwift will dominate the opportunitiesin Detroit's backfield is minimal.
Before welet go of the rope with Swift's 2021 fortunes,history can be a guide. The last time Lynn was an offensive coordinator was 2016 with the Bills.That season featuredan offense with aquarterbackknown for checking down(Tyrod Taylor) , a tight endas the top target (Charles Clay), and some theretofore underwhelming wideouts (Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin).Then there were the running backs.
LeSean McCoywas the starwithMike Gillislee as his understudy.It was Shady's last outsized fantasyrunwith more than 1,600 scrimmage yards and14 total touchdowns.Gillislee, meanwhile, had nearly 1,000 fewer yards butnine total scores.
D'Andre Swift is no LeSean McCoyand Jamaal Williams is an upgrade overMike Gillislee. You should expect those yardage splits to be much smaller.You should also expect those touchdown totals to bemuch lower.Last season, the Lions weremiddle of the packwith 44 offensive touchdowns.It's optimistic to think they could reach that number in 2021with the litany of stout defenses ontheir schedule.Sharing limited scoring opportunities is not the business.
One upsideis that the Lions were one of the league's most up-tempo offensesin 2020.It's what you do when you never have the ball and are almost always behind.Those factors could still be in play this year. So…hooray?
Fit and Usage
Detroit asked alot of Swift last year. Being a third-down playmaker was not one of those things.The rookielined up on less than a quarter of the team's third-down snaps.Not great on a team figuring to see a lot of third downs this year.
The good news is thatthis year'soffense will be different from last year's. The badnews is that Swift could still be on the short end of third-down snaps.
"I like to break the backs down into 'A' and 'B'," Lynntoldabout Williams."My 'A' backs are normally my bigger backs. They can run between the tackles, block probably a little better than a 'B' back, they can also run the perimeter. I can leave those guys in there for all three downs."
That doesn't sound like a coach looking to expand the role for asecond-yearback.The most generous readingsuggests Detroit could go with a hot hand approach, which is our worst fantasy nightmare.Could more targets be incoming? Don't count on it.Only Ben Roethlisberger targeted running backs at a lower rate than Jared Goff last year.
The only known in the Lions offense is the unknown.
Draft Value
We all want the best for D'Andre Swift. (Not talking to you, fans of other NFC North teams.) Butseeing him come off the board in the range of a high RB2feels … aspirational. There is more unknown than known. And what we think we know feelsicky.I'd rather take my chances with Chris Carson, James Robinson or Kareem Hunt, thank you very much.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for NFL.com and a man whomustget some dental work done today. Send him yourmedical woesor fantasy football questions on Twitter or Instagram at.
