Saturday night's win-and-in matchup between the 9-7 Houston Texans and 9-7 Indianapolis Colts is a rematch of a division tilt that took place all the way back in Week 2.
In that contest, Anthony Richardson started for Indy, rushing for two touchdowns before exiting early due to a concussion. Quarterback Gardner Minshew took over and led Indy to victory -- he would take over for good three weeks later after Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Texans rookie sensation C.J. Stroud was just beginning to turn heads, tossing for 384 yards with two TDs and zero INTs against the Colts. And Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans' defense was in the nascent stages of finding itself.
Heading into Saturday night's tilt, Ryans said he doesn't even recognize the teams that played in September.
"Yeah, we're a completely different team, they're a completely different team," the coach said on Monday, via the team's official transcript. "For me, it's all fresh start. For us, I don't really put much weight on the first game of the year. I start watching and I'm like, 'Man, who is this team?' It seems like that was so long ago, playing that second game, so fresh start for both teams. I think they have different players in, we have different players in. It'll be a fresh start."
Injuries have battered both teams. Houston has dealt with a huge string of issues, including Stroud missing two games due to a concussion (returned in Week 17). Minshew steadied the ship after Richardson's season-ending injury and received high praise from Ryans ahead of the rematch.
"Gardner has done a good job with his entire season," Ryans said. "He's played really well for them. You talk about the accuracy, you talk about him just being -- his movement in the pocket is what sets him apart. He's able to move up in the pocket, make plays. The scramble plays he makes, the explosives they're creating downfield -- he's done a really good job of leading this team as their quarterback, and he has that moxie, that playmaker [ability] to him that you can see on the tape. You can see guys really rallying behind him because they know the type of plays that he can make. But, he's done a really great job for them all year and that's why they're in this position they're in because of good quarterback play by Gardner."
The Colts are 4-0 when Minshew starts and has no giveaways -- 3-5 in games with 1-plus turnover.
The winner of Saturday night's tilt will secure a playoff spot. The victor will also leap into the division crown if Jacksonville loses at Tennessee on Sunday. The loser Saturday would be eliminated from postseason play (a tie could keep either in play depending on other results).
"We're really excited about just our opportunity and what this game means for us to earn a spot into the playoffs," Ryan said. So, we're excited about that opportunity. Whether it's prime time or not, it doesn't matter to us. We just want to go out and play good football. Play our brand of football, execute and just play clean."
Next Gen Stats currently pegs the Colts as having a 54% playoff probability with the Texans at 46%.
