I always do my ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íømock drafts a little differently from the traditional method, in that my team-prospect pairings are based on optimizing for wins in the upcoming season only. Here's a quick look at my process:
- I take the best available information about free agency -- which, right now, is admittedly not much more than what we know about player contracts -- to predict players' market value.
- I then check free agents' projected market value against the anticipated salary-cap space for each team.
- Finally, I add potential free agents or drafted players to different teams and identify which individuals increase teams' projected win total the most. (My player model leverages historical pre-draft player data to forecast ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøperformance.)
I'm starting this process early again this year, which is extremely fun because I am excited to track how things change with free agency and as the draft process evolves. For example, based on the Senior Bowl, which took place last week, I think Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart could appear in future versions of my Round 1 mock-up, depending on potential trades, what happens in free agency, etc.
One housekeeping item: I used computer vision-derived measurements and stats in my player evaluations, and all of my speed, burst and advance tracking notes are based on on-field game speed metrics.
NOTES:
- The order for pick Nos. 31 and 32 will be determined by the outcome of Super Bowl LIX.
- Tune in for live coverage of the 2025 ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøScouting Combine beginning Feb. 27 on ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøNetwork and NFL+.
Hunter’s upside and overall value in the 2025 class are too hard to ignore. If the Titans lock in on Hunter at No. 1, they have the benefit of addressing other needs -- like quarterback -- in free agency (as well as later in the draft). As of now, Hunter comes off the board no later than third overall in 81 percent of one million simulations by my model.
Carter’s burst is the fastest of any edge rusher in this year's class and comparable to what we've seen from four-time first-team All-Pro Myles Garrett throughout his pro career. Should Garrett stay in Cleveland, these two talents would form a very mean combo. If not, Carter would at least help to keep the Browns' pass rush formidable.
The Giants must sort out the offensive line in free agency if they end up taking a quarterback here. Ward's ability to limit turnovers while extending plays would get this offense back on track and open up Brian Daboll's play-calling. It's worth noting that there were simulations in which New York traded down a few spots and selected an offensive lineman instead (such as Kelvin Banks Jr., who has plenty of experience and can play RT); in those scenarios, the Giants would likely look to add a veteran passer in free agency and/or select one later in April's draft.
New England's offensive line could really use Campbell, who is my highest-ranked blocker this year. Per my model, the LSU product paced his position group in his ability to sustain contact from all angles and prevent pass rushers, while his body control forecasts well to the pro level. He's also extremely effective at stopping bull rushes. In an OL class that's light on probable Year 1 starters, Campbell is the exception, which catapults him into the top five.
Barron can speed up, slow down and then burst again -- a trait I've termed "speed control" -- better than any corner in this class, allowing him to adjust to the ball in midair to better position himself to defend passes. His upside also makes him a great foundational piece for new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile.
I know some people might argue an IOL in the top 10 isn’t sexy, but I don’t know if there’s anything more desirable than creating a fortress for a QB to operate behind. The Alabama product kept his base lowest for the longest of any offensive lineman in this draft class, and his size is right in the sweet spot for an interior blocker.
Apart from Sauce Gardner, nearly every other defensive back on the Jets' two-deep is set to become an unrestricted free agent in March. Johnson’s experience in man and zone, along with his overall play strength, would complement Sauce’s style well. New coach Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Mougey could choose to address corner in free agency, in which case, fellow Michigan man Mason Graham would provide a similar win-share uptick for New York.
If you quickly look at Williams' production from this past season, you probably won't peg him as the eighth overall pick. But you have to add about 20-25 percent to the Georgia product's final numbers (a range given to me by four separate scouts) because he played through injuries. Pairing Williams with a healthy Derrick Brown significantly upgrades the Panthers' front, meaning we shouldn't expect to see Carolina rank near the bottom of the league in sacks again in 2025.
The Saints' head coach vacancy throws a bit of a wrench into my model's pick for New Orleans, but Sanders would be an exceptional value at No. 9, no matter who lands the job. My model is high on Sanders for his accuracy and very high on him for his playmaking skills on downs after he's been pressured. In that latter area, he ranks near the top among all QB prospects in my 10-season sample. If you use that metric as a proxy for toughness, and then consider his relatively small size for his position, it's even more impressive.
The model got a little spicy with this pick, but Membou's positional versatility should be highly attractive to a Bears team that needs plenty of help along its O-line. The Mizzou prospect forecasts to play on the interior in Chicago -- in fact, his value is optimized at guard -- but he also has the ability to kick out to tackle if need be.
If I had a big board, I'd have Graham third overall in the class right now. His fit within defensive coordinator Robert Saleh's scheme could be just what the former Wolverine needs to reach his very high upside -- plus, Graham's presence could supercharge the other pieces along the Niners' front.
Jeanty is special. And on a rookie contract, his overall value is tremendous. He crushed several of PFF's single-season records this past year, including yards after contact, forced missed tackles and rushing grade. Hard to see Dallas passing on the Boise State back at No. 12.
The Dolphins have a number of decisions to make this offseason at all levels of the defense. Jevon Holland is set to be a free agent and will likely command a strong (and well-deserved) contract on the open market. If he departs, Starks would be a natural replacement in the Fins' secondary. Miami could also target a WR here, especially with some uncertainty swirling around Tyreek Hill's future with the team.
Warren is massive (6-foot-6, 261 pounds), versatile and tough, with a catch radius that would make him an ideal target for Anthony Richardson.
I don’t see the Falcons thinking anything other than pass rusher with this pick, and I have them taking the Georgia product. Walker boasts the best second-effort reflex (second move coming around the edge -- think Cam Jordan in his heyday) among prospects at his position in this year's class. Bonus for Atlanta: This versatile defender has plenty of experience playing off-ball linebacker.
My model really likes Pearce’s upside in a front that values his alignment versatility. Based on his burst, he projects as pass rusher who could earn at least eight sacks in Year 1.
Unfortunately for Bengals fans, in this mock scenario, Tee Higgins has already departed to a different city in free agency. So Cincinnati selects a big-bodied receiver with contested-catch ability to pair with Ja'Marr Chase on the outside. Despite his large frame (6-5, 212), McMillan has a similar body-control rating as wideouts who are much smaller and more compact. He could be very productive in this offense.
This is a home-run pick ... assuming Seattle intends to play Jackson at guard and not tackle, where he spent much of last season due to injuries on Ohio State's O-line. Jackson should be able to fortify the Seahawks' interior, giving Geno Smith the time he didn't quite have this past season to make more plays downfield. The ripple effect of this selection might be so significant, it could make a different Buckeye-turned-Seahawk worthy of a first-round pick in fantasy football next season.
Green is an extremely disruptive force off the edge. Pairing this relentless rusher with Todd Bowles? Chef's kiss!
Give Sean Payton this mismatch weapon and see what happens. Bo Nix, rightfully, would lose his mind if Denver were to make this pick.
Strong and can fight through press coverage? Yes, please! Buckeye wideouts tend to be good route runners, and Egbuka lives up to that reputation.
Don’t let the size (6-1, 245) fool you; the metrics that matter are all there for Stewart. Burst? Check. Run stopping? Check. ... You get it. The Michigan product hits all the crucial benchmarks for an edge rusher, and in this simulation, he reunites with Jim Harbaugh.
Nolen has some really nice traits, such as his burst and consistent ability to break into the backfield against both the run and pass. But he'll need the right fit; otherwise his aggressive, turnt-up style could potentially be exploited by simple offensive schemes.
With so many of Minnesota's DBs due to hit free agency in March, getting the secondary set will be a big priority this offseason. Likely unable to address all their pass-coverage needs on the open market, the Vikings use their first-rounder on Morrison, whose ball skills and physicality make him a strong fit within Brian Flores' defense.
You know the OL class is a bit light (perhaps uncertain is a nicer way to put it) when the model chooses a WR for the team that got blasted between the tackles this past season. Golden stands out for his route-running tempo production.
After nailing several picks in recent years that have allowed the Rams to build a fierce defensive front, Les Snead & Co. turn their attention to the other side of the line. Simmons has the upside to be a franchise left tackle and could serve as Alaric Jackson's replacement if the veteran signs elsewhere in free agency.
Banks has a ton of experience (42 college starts) and forecasts to fit best in a system that values his athleticism. Some have the Texas product as the top tackle in the 2025 class. But my models say the landing spot will be critical when it comes to Banks realizing his potential at the next level.
Depending on how free agency shakes out for the Lions, I could see them using their first-rounder on a corner again this year. But Sawyer's value as a run-stopper -- in addition to other great edge metrics -- drives Detroit to select him at No. 28.
I am pretty shocked my model didn’t have the Commanders taking an offensive lineman here, but maybe that reinforces the lack of first-round value among that group this year. Burden’s stutter step (starting, stopping, etc.) and slot-production potential should fit well with Jayden Daniels and Kliff Kingsbury.
Grant would be a great value at No. 30 overall and a big help to a defensive line that could .
Stewart's profile includes some real strengths and some realistic areas for refinement. His measurable traits, such as burst, fuel his tremendous upside. But his inconsistency converting pressures into disruptive, drive-stalling plays drags down his stock a bit. That said, there are many examples of draft prospects who improved in this metric at the ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íølevel.
One of my favorite Thomas notes is that he gains speed after adjusting his hips to the direction of the ball at the second-quickest rate in the class, which is impressive for his size (6-1 1/2, 191). Oh, and he can press, too.
