Now that many big moves have been made in free agency, I re-ran my analytics-based mock draft ... I guess that makes this my Analytics Mock 2.0, which reflects personnel adjustments from free agency but is still based solely on a contextual, data-driven model that aims to do one thing:
Maximize each team's potential to win as many games as possible in 2020.
Just like , take note: I am NOT attempting to predict or divine what teams will ACTUALLY DO on draft day. This is not meant to predict how the draft will play out in reality. Rather, I am using this model to, again, examine what teams should do if winning the most games in 2020 is the only goal. The exercise I am taking you through here considers current rosters and the overall market of remaining free agents.
Here's how my mock works: I use my to create a numerical value for each player. These ratings can be compared across years. Then I use my , which considers the market of free agents at each position, to create a projected win-contribution metric by player, position group and side of the ball. These get added up to forecast win totals for the season. The results quantify strengths and weaknesses of current 国产外流网rosters. My model also factors in as many known elements of coaching philosophies (of the current staffs) as possible, and of the 2020 opponents. Then my model "selects" the draft prospect that would yield the highest win total for each team next season.
Here's the part that's extra: I have projections and results for all teams and the draft prospects they selected over the past 15 seasons. I examine each season's on-field results, objectively analyzing what happened, along with the trends and strategies that led to success or failure. I also ask coaches, front office executives and even players to help me understand why results occurred. These subjective inputs help shape the results, meaning the model gets "smarter" with each passing season.
Lastly, there are a lot of real-life efficiencies that could be realized via draft-pick trades. I can't help myself but to note them in certain cases, but for the sake of this mock, there are no trades allowed. If I worked for an individual team, an analysis like this could aid in creating a strategy for identifying potential trade partners as well as vulnerable spots where other teams are most likely to scoop up targeted players.
Note: Remember to for more information.
School: Ohio State | Year: Junior
With some surprise high-value free agents still on the market -- namely edge rusher聽聽and quarterback聽聽-- the mathematical decision translates to win-share value of more-known quantity at edge (Clowney) plus rookie quarterback (聽Joe Burrow) versus more-known quantity at quarterback (Newton) plus rookie edge (Young). With the聽' subpar O-line -- and the rules of this mock narrowing our focus to聽2020 wins only聽(disregarding future years) -- Young, who is my model's highest-rated player, barely edges out Burrow. In聽, there was a much bigger gap in win-share increase between Young and Burrow. Now, that margin is razor thin.
School: Georgia | Year: Junior
Assuming Washington moves on from seven-time Pro Bowler聽听(听), adding a left tackle affords the聽聽the best opportunity to get the most from second-year QB聽. There are four high-ceiling tackles in this draft class, of which Thomas is my top-ranked, meaning my model thinks he will have the biggest impact from Day 1.
School: Ohio State | Year: Junior
聽leaves Detroit with a massive question mark at corner, and Okudah is my model's top-rated prospect at the position. While the No. 3 overall pick could be a prime trade target for a team looking for a quarterback -- especially now that the聽, who pick fourth overall, added cornerback聽**, which could allow Detroit a better chance to trade down a few picks and聽still聽land Okudah -- trades aren't allowed in this mock, so Okudah's fit offers a high ROI.
School: Iowa | Year: Junior
This pick remains the same from聽聽in part because of the value of Wirfs' right tackle production projection, and also because the team's signing of free-agent corner聽聽helps address a big need on the defensive side of the ball. Further, bolstering the O-line very slightly edges out the potential value聽聽could bring to the聽' defense. (The addition of linebacker聽聽in free agency also drives more value to increasing the O-line impact.)
School: LSU | Year: Senior (RS)
Again, an unchanged projection聽. One note on the QB that adds context from the last mock: On both passing attempts from a clean pocket and under pressure, Burrow had the highest percentage of throws that came within three feet of his intended receiver for any draft-eligible quarterback this season. I also compared his mark with the consensus top 10 QBs from last season ... and the 10 from the season before ... and his percentage tops all of them. Let that sink in, because I did聽a lot聽of coding to get here. Not one consensus top-10 draft-eligible QB from the last few classes had a higher percentage of on-target passes than Burrow.
School: Alabama | Year: Junior
Considering the increased likelihood of聽聽and the聽' improvements at left tackle (Bryan Bulaga) and on defense (CB Chris Harris) in free agency, Tagovailoa's blend of quick- and deep-passing potential gives the Bolts the best chance for the most wins in 2020. Should Tua not be available,聽Mekhi Becton聽would be my model's next-best selection here.
School: Clemson | Year: Junior (RS)
After Young, Simmons offers the highest win-share impact to an "average" team for the 2020 season in my model. That's not to say that QBs aren't valuable as rookies, but rather that players at the position typically take a bit more time to realize true gains. As for Simmons' specific fit on the聽, his extreme versatility in college (he played meaningful reps as a slot corner, safety, off-ball linebacker and edge defender, as well as some snaps as an outside corner) makes his potential production as a pro more impactful in the competition-elevated NFC South.
School: Louisville | Year: Junior
Adding (聽)听聽and then drafting Becton increases the聽' win-total projection by more than two Ws in my model. That's a聽really聽big jump. Becton's athleticism fits the projected pace of play in this Kliff Kingsbury/聽聽system very well.
School: Auburn | Year: Senior
In my聽, I had the Jags adding to their interior pressure potential by selecting聽Javon Kinlaw. Brown was off the board by the time Jacksonville was picking in that exercise. Not today! Brown would be an upgrade over Kinlaw, per my model, as his production against the run聽and聽pass at Auburn project for quicker potential development and impact as a pro than any other defensive tackle in this draft.
School: Alabama | Year: Junior
I've already praised the free-agent acquisition of right tackle聽, calling the signing one of my top聽聽so far in free agency. One other reason the Conklin signing is so clutch, along with the聽' other free-agent dealings, is that it gives them a lot of trade leverage with the 10th overall pick. Left tackle is certainly a need, and Wills creates the most value in this projected situation. However, depending on how the draft plays out in reality, the聽聽could snag their tackle聽and聽add to their overall draft equity.
School: LSU | Year: Sophomore (RS)
罢丑别听' offseason has included a number of high-value contracts, per my model, in the sense that they are priced well for the potential production and create fits that seem to strategically align. Corner聽聽for $5 million is an example. 罢丑别听聽added four O-linemen in free agency, yet the offensive front is still their most critical position area of need, per my model. However, my four highest-ranked offensive linemen are off the board. As is my highest-ranked corner. Therefore, addressing the pass rush adds most to the聽' potential in 2020. There is only a small difference between Chaisson, fellow edge聽A.J. Epenesa聽and CB聽C.J. Henderson聽in my simulations.
School: Alabama | Year: Junior
No change here聽. While my imaginary neutral-fit model has receiver聽CeeDee Lamb聽rated slightly higher than Jeudy, the fit within the聽' system -- given what we know about Las Vegas' QB situation and Gruden's play-calling tendencies -- edges the Alabama product ahead of Lamb.
School: Oklahoma | Year: Junior
奥颈迟丑听, upgrading the receiver position would add the most 2020 wins for San Francisco -- and Lamb is my model's highest-rated wideout, due to his route-running ability and yards-after-catch savvy. This is a strategic fit for the Niners, given Lamb's catch potential and his ability to open up spatial opportunity for others in Kyle Shanahan's offense.
School: South Carolina | Year: Senior
My model projects Kinlaw's production at interior defensive line would add more to Tampa's 2020 wins than any available O-lineman (adding right tackle聽聽shifted this) or defensive back. Kinlaw's Day 1 impact in Todd Bowles' system forecasts to be most felt against the pass, which will help the Bucs' young defensive backfield, as the front and back of defenses complement each other.
School: Colorado | Year: Junior
聽will benefit from this pick, as will聽Courtland Sutton. Shenault's ability after the catch -- breaking tackles and turning shorter, scheme-based passes into big gains -- will complement both a developing quarterback and a receiver who broke out last season. Shenault has a less-certain projection than the two receivers picked ahead of him, but his potential is maximized in a scheme that can leverage his physical style early on.
School: Iowa | Year: Junior
Epenesa's projected value as an edge rusher adds the most wins to the聽. (CB聽C.J. Henderson聽would be next in line.)
School: Florida | Year: Junior
With corner聽聽now in Miami -- and receiver聽聽signed to a long-term deal -- Henderson fills Dallas' most crucial need.
School: Houston | Year: Senior (RS)
Fifth offensive tackle by Pick No. 18 ... Let's just say there will be trades, but don't underestimate the value at the position (I'm talking to teams here).
School: Alabama | Year: Senior
Even with the signing of free-agent corner聽, Las Vegas spending its second first-round pick on Diggs creates the greatest uptick in projected wins, especially considering the likelihood of facing high passing volume in the AFC West.
UPDATE:After the publishing of this mock draft,, thus making this pick even more relevant.
School: Alabama | Year: Junior
Adding McKinney's versatility as a safety/nickel linebacker at Pick No. 20 gives the Jags a pretty big steal in terms of聽wins added聽for their new-look defense.
School: Alabama | Year: Junior
Much more than just a speed merchant. According to Pro Football Focus, Ruggs dropped just five passes during his three college seasons. And he's a highly efficient route runner.
School: Clemson | Year: Junior
The departures of聽聽and Xavier Rhodes/聽聽create a big primary need on each side of the ball. My neutral model is slightly higher on聽Justin Jefferson聽than Higgins. However, pairing Higgins with聽聽and Minnesota's tight ends adds the most wins in 2020.
School: Oregon | Year: Senior
I was fortunate enough to have the chance -- via Zoom, of course -- to track and code for Herbert's game with a coach from the Bill Belichick tree. While it would be better for聽any聽Pats quarterback聽, the potential for Herbert to execute in this system is higher than it might appear at first blush.
School: LSU | Year: Junior
I really liked my聽Justin Jefferson聽pick here in聽, but with the addition of聽, Jefferson's value was leapfrogged by the linebacker position -- especially since Queen is in the top 16 of my neutral-team player rankings.
School: LSU | Year: Senior
This pick聽, yet has a higher win impact now that聽聽has departed.
School: USC | Year: Junior
The sixth offensive tackle off the board here. And he just so happens to go at No. 26, which is exactly his ranking on聽.
School: TCU | Year: Junior (RS)
奥颈濒濒听聽stay on this team? Either way, boosting the D-line with Blacklock adds the most value here.
School: Georgia | Year: Junior
This pick also聽聽-- for now. However, depending on which defenders are available, this could shift. The next-closest wins-added fit? Oklahoma LB聽Kenneth Murray.
School: Penn State | Year: Junior
My model identifies edge rusher, defensive tackle (to fill the void left by聽) and right tackle (after聽) as the highest 2020 win-share uptick picks, with Gross-Matos leading the way in this simulation.
School: LSU | Year: Junior
My model rates this as a steal for the聽, even though they already acquired聽. Jefferson and聽' projected production = fantasy and reality gold.
School: Utah | Year: Junior
Johnson's potential overall production -- from the corner position and particularly as a slot defender -- addresses both a Day 1 need and depth against the pass. My model has Johnson slightly edging out LSU safety聽Grant Delpit.
School: Clemson | Year: Junior
Highest-rated corner available in this simulation. Boosting the CB group creates the most value for the聽聽overall, and Terrell's Clemson resume projects for high value in a Steve Spagnuolo defense.
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