Four months ago, all 32 ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøfranchises could dream the ultimate football dream: hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Now we're left with eight potential Super Bowl LIX winners. How do they stack up against each other? That's what we're here to explore today.
Last week, the editors behind NFL.com's weekly Game Picks (Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr) convened to fill out the entire playoff bracket. While our heavy-hitters remain in play, a few early miscalculations on our part will, unfortunately, keep us from perfection. So we're back to the drawing board for Round 2 -- with a different twist. This time around, having just been humbled by the unpredictability of postseason football, we're looking to answer a simple question of faith:
Whom do we trust most to win February's Super Bowl in New Orleans?
Taking everything into account -- including each remaining team's potential path to the Lombardi Trophy -- the five editors listed above provided their own confidence rankings. Through the power of mathematics, we combined the ballots to build a consensus. Here is the aggregate pecking order, presented in countdown fashion with additional intel on each contender.
NOTE: The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Jan. 14.
Total confidence score: 5 pts (of a possible 40)
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: vs. Chargers (32-12)
- Divisional Round: at Chiefs
- Conference Championship: at Bills/at Ravens
Super Bowl odds: +5500
Houston entered the 2024 campaign as a buzzworthy contender with a wunderkind quarterback, but C.J. Stroud and the Texans took a step back in the regular season, specifically on offense. Yes, DeMeco Ryans' bunch won its second consecutive division title at 10-7, but the AFC South didn't feature another team with a winning record. This just felt like a mediocre squad -- as evidenced by a point differential of ZERO -- leading many to believe it'd be one-and-done in the playoffs. To their credit, the Texans weathered an early storm this past Saturday and ultimately smashed the road-favorite Chargers, 32-12. This week provides a whole different challenge: the back-to-back reigning champion Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. Houston lost at Kansas City just over a month ago. Have we really seen enough from the Texans to believe they can flip that script in an elimination game? -- Gennaro
Total confidence score: 10 pts
Route to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: at Buccaneers (23-20)
- Divisional Round: at Lions
- Conference Championship: at Eagles/Rams/Vikings
Super Bowl odds: +2800
We nearly added a section to last week’s playoff prediction overview that labeled Commanders-Bucs as the biggest trap game in Round 1. But we convinced ourselves that Jayden Daniels’ rookie-year late-game magic eventually had to run out. Into the pit we fell. (Well, not all.) And yet, here we are again, siding against Washington in the midst of a historic turnaround. For the franchise to finish its fairytale season with a Lombardi Trophy, it will have to win back-to-back road games -- including at Detroit this weekend -- and take down one of the AFC’s Big Three (barring an even more improbable run by Houston). A magical ending, for sure, but an unlikely one. -- Ali
Total confidence score: 15 pts
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: vs. Vikings (27-9)
- Divisional Round: at Eagles
- Conference Championship: vs. Commanders/at Lions
Super Bowl odds: +2000
The Rams didn't climb above .500 until December -- with the kind of victory (a 44-42 white-knuckler over the Bills, who are ranked higher on our list) that helps illustrate why they sit above a Commanders squad that won two more games than them in the regular season. It was part of a five-game win streak that Matthew Stafford and Co. rode into the playoffs, where they gathered even more momentum by trouncing the Vikings in an emotional Wild Card Round showdown. They now feel almost like a team of destiny. So why don't we have more confidence in them? Well, there's that pesky slow start (which included losses to the Eagles, their opponent on Sunday, and the Lions, whom they would likely have to face next), though it probably doesn't say too much about where the team stands now. Perhaps more worrying: L.A.'s occasional struggles to score and the defense's tendency to cough up yards, even down the stretch. If they can't reach the end zone or slow Saquon Barkley, their ride is likely to end in Philly. -- Tom
Total confidence score: 23 pts
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Weekend: vs. Packers (22-10)
- Divisional Round: vs. Rams
- Conference Championship: vs. Commanders/at Lions
Super Bowl odds: +400
Philadelphia's offense features all-world playmakers and the best offensive line in football, but this team is truly defined by its defense. Since the Eagles' early bye back in Week 5, Vic Fangio's unit has performed at an elite level, allowing just 14.6 points and 255.1 yards per game in its last 14 outings. Now, in Sunday's 22-10 smothering of Green Bay, Philly did lose linebacker Nakobe Dean to a season-ending injury. That hurts. But the Eagles still have potent playmakers on each level of the D, including first-team All-Pro LB Zack Baun, second-team All-Pro DT Jalen Carter and a pair of dynamic rookie DBs in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. If defense truly does win championships, this is the team to back. -- Gennaro
Total confidence score: 25 pts
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: vs. Broncos (31-7)
- Divisional Round: vs. Ravens
- Conference Championship: vs. Texans/at Chiefs
Super Bowl odds: +550
Are we sleeping on the Bills? Perhaps. They have to win at home (where they haven’t lost since last January) and then, barring a massive upset by Houston, go on the road to defeat the Chiefs (a team they beat by nine points in Buffalo earlier this season) to get to Super Bowl LIX. That is doable for a team that has scored fewer than 30 points only once when playing its starters since mid-October. However, as far as level of difficulty goes, it doesn’t get much tougher than having to get past MVP front-runner Lamar Jackson and then Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead, where Josh Allen is 0-2 all time in the postseason. It’s awfully tight between Buffalo and Baltimore, which makes Sunday’s game so hard to pick, but the Ravens did cruise, 35-10, when these teams met at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 4. -- Dan
Total confidence score: 33 pts
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: vs. Steelers (28-14)
- Divisional Round: at Bills
- Conference Championship: vs. Texans/at Chiefs
Super Bowl odds: +475
The Ravens have been crushing folks since their Week 14 bye, racking up five straight wins -- all by 14 points or more -- behind the league’s most versatile and complementary offense and a defense that seemingly gets better every week. Even their kicking game has returned to form, with Justin Tucker perfect on field-goal attempts (3) and PATs (22) during the team’s winning streak. As great as they’ve been -- as special as Lamar Jackson is -- the Ravens simply have more hurdles in front of them than the Chiefs, needing to win at Buffalo (which no team has done this season) and then, potentially, at Kansas City, before they even make it to New Orleans. Brutal. But we believe in Baltimore. And we'd much rather be in the position of backing the game’s biggest X-factor than trying to fade him because of previous playoff misfortunes. -- Ali
Total confidence score: 34 pts
Road to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: BYE
- Divisional Round: vs. Texans
- Conference Championship: vs. Bills/Ravens
Super Bowl odds: +350
These Chiefs aren't without concerns as they attempt to three-peat. They have a middle-of-the-pack offense in total yards and scoring and their starters will have had more than three weeks rest when they take the field Saturday afternoon, raising the specter of rust. But the fact of the matter is this: Being the No. 1 seed diverts them from having to play both the Bills and Ravens on the way to New Orleans -- immediately bettering their odds. They still need to get by a fearless Houston team whose defense could stir trouble in order to set up that meeting with Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson in the AFC title game, but recent history tells us not to go against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in the postseason. Mahomes has never lost (6-0) or turned the ball over (16 total TDs, zero giveaways) in six career Divisional Round games. He's also appeared in six AFC title games and four Super Bowls (winning three) in his six seasons as the starter. No matter how good Kansas City's opponent is in the title game or Super Bowl, Mahomes' experience and ability to rise in the biggest moments make the Chiefs hard to bet against. -- Brooke
Total confidence score: 35 pts
Route to Super Bowl:
- Wild Card Round: BYE
- Divisional Round: vs. Commanders
- Conference Championship: vs. Eagles/Vikings/Rams
Super Bowl odds: +275
Detroit’s path to the Super Bowl isn’t without peril, starting this weekend with the challenge of slowing down OROY front-runner Jayden Daniels, but when you compare it to the meat grinder trio of heavyweights in the AFC, there’s at least a little more oxygen in the NFC. The biggest difference between the Lions and Chiefs, when it comes to what lies ahead, is Kansas City will have to beat one of the top two MVP candidates to get to the Super Bowl, assuming it takes care of business against the Texans. Home-field advantage and better quarterback play give Dan Campbell’s squad the leg up over Philly, the stiffest remaining competition in the NFC. Will whatever edge the Lions enjoy now still exist if they get to the Super Bowl and Patrick Mahomes is waiting for them in New Orleans? That might be the question of the year. -- Dan
