This is a look at the first-round order for the 2024 ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷ÍøDraft heading into Week 11 of the 2023 ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøseason, along with the top five needs for each team. The order is determined by record, using strength of schedule as the first tiebreaker (). Keep in mind -- teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today are marked as PL (short for playoffs) in the order below. The draft order for playoff teams is determined by the results of postseason play.
Arrows reflect movement from last week's order.
PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE CAROLINA PANTHERS
Panthers' record: 1-8 (.547 strength of schedule)
Panthers' Week 11 opponent: vs. Cowboys
Bears' biggest needs: OT, IOL, WR, TE, Edge
GM Ryan Poles was smart to insist on DJ Moore being part of the trade that landed the Bears the Panthers’ first-round selection in 2024. Darnell Mooney is a free agent after the season, though, so Poles should be looking to add more pass-catchers in the draft.
See the bottom of this article for analysis of the Panthers' needs.
Biggest needs: CB, WR, DT, Edge, IOL
Week 11 opponent: at Texans
The return of Kyler Murray gave the Cardinals' offense a much-needed spark on Sunday, but one of the worst run defenses in the league still gave up 184 yards on the ground to the Falcons. Sixth-round pick Dante Stills is a keeper, but starters Kevin Strong and Leki Fotu are scheduled to be free agents. Arizona needs more difference-makers up front.
Biggest needs: RB, DT, OL, QB, TE
Week 11 opponent: at Commanders
Injured Giants QB Daniel Jones likely isn’t going anywhere for at least one more season, given his contract situation. However, GM Joe Schoen might have no choice but to pick up a passer next April to provide a strong backup -- or immediate competition -- for Jones.
Biggest needs: QB, OT, TE, CB, WR
Week 11 opponent: Bye
The poor play of Mac Jones would seem to increase the likelihood that the Patriots will be in the market for a QB next year. Barring a major turnaround by Jones or breakthrough by 2022 fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe, New England could be selecting a passer in the top five for the third time in franchise history (Drew Bledsoe, No. 1 overall, 1993; Jim Plunkett, No. 1 overall, 1971).
Week 11 opponent: at Lions
See Pick No. 1 for analysis of the Bears' needs.
Biggest needs: OT, S, IOL, CB, WR
Week 11 opponent: vs. Chargers
Green Bay must decide whether to entrust starting spots to center Josh Myers and guard Jon Runyan again in 2024. Perhaps the Packers will look at a tackle with their first-round pick, as it’s in line to be their highest selection since 2006, but the team will surely pick up one or two more linemen later on to compete for interior jobs.
Biggest needs: OT, WR, Edge, RB, DT
Week 11 opponent: at Jaguars
Tennessee signed Andre Dillard to replace Taylor Lewan at left tackle and drafted Nicholas Petit-Frere in the third round in 2022 to play on the right side, but neither have been world-beaters. In addition, veteran Chris Hubbard will be a free agent, so I’m expecting the Titans to pick a tackle early in the draft.
Biggest needs: OT, CB, Edge, S, K
Week 11 opponent: vs. Seahawks
Safeties Jordan Fuller and John Johnson III, who has been relegated to a backup role, are scheduled to become free agents after the season. The Rams might like young players Russ Yeast and Quentin Lake heading into 2024, but the team should still search for more depth in the draft.
Biggest needs: QB, WR, CB, Edge, DT
Week 11 opponent: Bye
Each week that the Falcons struggle on offense makes it more likely the team will draft a quarterback to lead the team in 2024 and beyond. Veteran Taylor Heinicke left Sunday's loss to the Cardinals with a hamstring injury, giving the recently benched Desmond Ridder another chance. With Atlanta heading into a bye week, head coach Arthur Smith has not yet named a starter for the team’s next game.
Biggest needs: Edge, LB, IOL, OT, WR
Week 11 opponent: vs. Giants
The Commanders have a nice trio of receivers in Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Dyami Brown, but they might need to add depth if Jamison Crowder, Byron Pringle and Curtis Samuel test the free-agent waters this spring.
Biggest needs: OT, IOL, QB, S, WR
Week 11 opponent: at Bills
The Jets have had to shuffle their offensive line multiple times due to injuries and ineffectiveness. I expect the team to be busy rebuilding the wall in front of its quarterback -- likely Aaron Rodgers -- in 2024.
Biggest needs: DT, Edge, S, CB, TE
Week 11 opponent: vs. Vikings
Head coach Sean Payton traded for tight end Adam Trautman from his former team, the Saints, on Day 3 of the 2023 draft. Trautman's a 2024 free agent, though, and there hasn't been much production from the position with Greg Dulcich battling a nagging hamstring injury.
Biggest needs: QB, IOL, LB, S, CB
Week 11 opponent: at 49ers
Cornerback Carlton Davis gave up three touchdowns against the Texans in Week 9, per PFF, and he missed Sunday’s game with a toe injury. He possesses a large cap number for 2024 and will be a free agent after next season. The Buccaneers might use a pick on a corner in the top half of the draft for the first time since selecting Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean on Day 2 in 2019.
Biggest needs: CB, RB, DT, TE, WR
Week 11 opponent: at Packers
One reason quarterback Justin Herbert was so effective as a rookie was the presence of tight end Hunter Henry. Gerald Everett has not been quite as efficient in his two seasons with the Chargers and is scheduled to enter free agency in 2024. Donald Parham is a solid reserve, but the team should be looking for an upgrade at the position.
Biggest needs: OT, IOL, RB, CB, DT
Week 11 opponent: at Dolphins
I'm not going to list quarterback as a need with Aidan O'Connell having just a few starts under his belt. Center Andre James and guard Greg Van Roten could sign elsewhere in the spring, though, so whomever the team's passer may be in 2024 could need new interior linemen.
Biggest needs: DT, S, Edge, WR, CB
Week 11 opponent: vs. Jets
Trading for former Packers cornerback Rasul Douglas bolstered the group, but signing Josh Norman while Tre'Davious White remains out points to the need for more depth in 2024. Dane Jackson could receive a lot of attention in free agency, as well.
Biggest needs: WR, CB, DT, S, LB
Week 11 opponent: Bye
Leading tackler Zaire Franklin enters a contract year in 2024 and the team's depth at linebacker could be improved. Picking up an athletic second-level defender who specializes in coverage would help Franklin and Shaquille Leonard's cause on early downs.
Biggest needs: OT, WR, TE, DT, Edge
Week 11 opponent: at Ravens
The Bengals picked Myles Murphy late in the first round this year, but until he shows the ability to consistently get after the quarterback, the team should look for middle-round picks with potential on the edge.
Biggest needs: OT, OG, WR, CB, LB
Week 11 opponent: Bye
I expect Demario Davis and Pete Werner to be the team's top two linebackers in 2024, though both will be in a contract year. Zack Baun will be a free agent after the season and the team's depth at the position should be improved with a middle-round pick.
PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE HOUSTON TEXANS
Texans' record: 5-4 (.506)
Texans' Week 11 opponent: vs. Cardinals
See Pick No. 2 for analysis of the Cardinals' needs and the playoff teams section of this article for analysis of the Texans' needs.
Biggest needs: QB, Edge, DT, OG, RB
Week 11 opponent: at Broncos
Minnesota released running back Dalvin Cook this summer and lost Cam Akers to injury after trading for him earlier this season. Alexander Mattison is a nice power back and Ty Chandler scored his first ¹ú²úÍâÁ÷Íøtouchdown on Sunday, but Akers will be a free agent after the season, so the team seems likely to find another ball-carrier in the middle of the draft.
Biggest needs: OT, RB, C, DT, CB
Week 11 opponent: at Panthers
Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland appear to be a strong cornerback duo for the Cowboys' future. But the two veteran corners for whom Dallas traded, Stephon Gilmore and Noah Igbinoghere, are ticketed for free agency this spring. As Diggs' injury shows, attrition on the outside of the defense is a constant. Adding more talent in the middle of the draft makes sense.
Biggest needs: OT, IOL, DT, S, TE
Week 11 opponent: vs. Raiders
The Dolphins could use a Day 3 pick to find a promising backup for veteran tight end Durham Smythe. Tyler Kroft will be a free agent in the spring and the only other tight end on the roster is rookie Julian Hill.
Biggest needs: LB, OG, S, DT, Edge
Week 11 opponent: at Rams
While Seattle has picked up pass rushers in the second round in three of the last four years, 2020 pick Darrell Taylor is set to hit free agency after the season and the team signed Frank Clark to step in for the injured Uchenna Nwosu. Boye Mafe, Derick Hall and Nwosu should be the top edge defenders next year but I’m looking for GM John Schneider to add another player to that mix on Day 3.
Biggest needs: OT, IOL, TE, Edge, DT
Week 11 opponent: vs. Buccaneers
Javon Kinlaw's fifth-year option was not picked up by the 49ers, making him an impending free agent. Arik Armstead is due to become a free agent after next season, which means the team should find a player with the potential to grow into a starter alongside Javon Hargrave.
Biggest needs: CB, IOL, WR, DT, OT
Week 11 opponent: at Browns
First-round pick Broderick Jones slid to right tackle after Chukwuma Okorafor was benched two weeks ago. Okorafor is signed through next season, but I expect the Steelers to bring in competition for the right tackle spot if they want Jones to play on the left side.
PICK ACQUIRED FROM THE CLEVELAND BROWNS
Browns' record: 6-3 (.553)
Browns' Week 11 opponent: vs. Steelers
Texans' biggest needs: CB, DT, Edge, TE, OT
Houston's defense chased Bengals QB Joe Burrow around the field on Sunday, but leading sacker Jonathan Greenard and veteran Jerry Hughes are impending free agents. If Greenard does not return, the team must find another running mate for 2023 No. 3 overall pick Will Anderson Jr.
See the bottom of this article for analysis of the Browns' needs.
Biggest needs: Edge, OG, CB, WR, OT
Week 11 opponent: vs. Titans
The 49ers brought the game to the Jaguars' offensive line on Sunday in a way that could push the team to make changes in the offseason. Cam Robinson is due a significant salary in 2024 and started the year serving a four-game suspension. If he does not return, Jacksonville should pick up a tackle to challenge Walker Little (if he slides back to tackle from guard) and 2023 first-round pick Anton Harrison.
Biggest needs: RB, WR, DT, OG, CB
Week 11 opponent: vs. Bengals
Baltimore's pass defense has been outstanding this season, but GM Eric DeCosta will need to replenish the team's cornerback depth in the middle of the draft if Ronald Darby and Rock Ya-Sin depart via free agency.
Biggest needs: WR, OG, CB, DT, Edge
Week 11 opponent: vs. Bears
The Lions signed Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley to bolster their cornerback room last spring (then traded former first-rounder Jeff Okudah in April) but Moseley tore his ACL last month in his first game back from a knee injury. He'll be a free agent again in 2024 and the team needs playmakers on the outside.
Biggest needs: DT, OT, WR, CB, LB
Week 11 opponent: vs. Eagles
The Chiefs rely on four second-year players in the secondary, but fourth-year veteran L'Jarius Sneed is scheduled to hit the free-agent market this spring. It would make sense to find a corner in the middle section of next year's draft to compete for playing time and potentially ease the pressure to retain its CBs down the road.
Biggest needs: RB, Edge, WR, LB, CB
Week 11 opponent: at Chiefs
Darius Slay has the Eagles cornerback group's two interceptions this season. Starter James Bradberry will be 31 years old next year, so even if fourth-round pick Kelee Ringo steps up in Year 2, the team should look for a draft pick to compete for playing time next fall.
TEAMS CURRENTLY WITHOUT A FIRST-ROUND PICK
TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE CHICAGO BEARS
Biggest needs: Edge, WR, CB, LB, IOL
Week 11 opponent: vs. Cowboys
Carolina's defensive leader, linebacker Frankie Luvu, should garner considerable interest in free agency. Kamu Grugier-Hill could also hit the market, while Shaq Thompson will be 30 years old and coming off injury in his contract year. If the Panthers don’t work out a new deal with Luvu, it will be time to find a new star second-level defender.
TRADED FIRST-ROUND PICK TO THE HOUSTON TEXANS
Biggest needs: S, OT, Edge, DT, LB
Week 11 opponent: vs. Steelers
The Browns' linebacker depth chart might look significantly different in 2024. Sione Takitaki and Anthony Walker Jr. are among the team’s impending free agents. Adding more athleticism in the middle would allow Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to chase and attack.
